PROJECTIONS TRACK RECORD FOR 2018 MIDTERM ELECTION – SENATE
Below are the Past Projections for the 2018 U.S. Midterm Election – SENATE
SENATE CONTROL – Previous Projections
51 Seats Needed for Majority Control
as of November 1, 2018:
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability as of Sep 12 |
|
Senate Control | REP 85.4% |
REP 88% |
n/a | REP Likely |
n/a | REP 75% |
as of October 25, 2018:
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability as of Sep 12 |
|
Senate Control | REP 82.8% |
REP 87% |
n/a | REP Likely |
n/a | REP 75% |
as of October 10, 2018:
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability as of Sep 12 |
|
Senate Control | REP 80.5% |
REP 84% |
n/a | REP Likely |
n/a | REP 75% |
as of October 3, 2018:
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability as of Sep 12 |
|
Senate Control | REP 76.7% |
REP 76% |
n/a | REP Likely |
n/a | REP 75% |
as of September 18, 2018:
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability |
|
Senate Control | REP 69.3% |
REP 72% |
n/a | REP Likely |
n/a | REP 75% |
as of September 12, 2018:
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability |
|
Senate Control | REP 67.7% |
REP 73% |
n/a | REP Likely |
n/a | REP 75% |
as of September 9, 2018:
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability |
|
Senate Control | n/a | REP – 75% |
REP- Likely |
as of September 7, 2018:
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability |
|
Senate Control | n/a | REP – 75% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
SENATE ELECTIONS – Previous Projections
as of November 1, 2018:
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability |
|
Arizona (AZ) Sinema-D vs McSally-R |
DEM 60.1% |
REP 56% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 52% |
Florida (FL) Nelson*-D vs Scott-R |
DEM 71.0% |
DEM 57% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 52% |
Indiana (IN) Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R |
DEM 70.4% |
DEM 51% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 51% |
Minnesota (MN) – Special Election Smith*-D vs Housley-R |
DEM 89.2% |
DEM 84% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Lean |
DEM 50% |
Mississippi (MS) – Special Election Espy-D vs Hyde-Smith*-R |
REP 87.4% |
REP 91% |
REP | REP Likely |
REP Likely |
REP 60% |
Missouri (MO) McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R |
DEM 59.6% |
REP 60% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 51% |
Montana (MT) Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R |
DEM 84.6% |
DEM 64% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
50/50 | DEM 64% |
Nebraska (NE) Raybould-D vs Fischer*-R |
REP 97.9% |
REP 96% |
REP | REP | REP | REP 85% |
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Horary – AstroProbability |
|
Nevada (NV) Rosen-D vs Heller*-R |
REP 55.5% |
DEM 53% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 51% |
New Jersey (NJ) Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R |
DEM 90.5% |
DEM 79% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM 55% |
North Dakota (ND) Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R |
REP 75.0% |
REP 84% |
REP Lean |
REP Lean |
REP Likely |
REP 50% |
Ohio (OH) Brown*-D vs Renacci-R |
DEM 96.1% |
DEM 88% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM 85% |
Pennsylvania (PA) Casey*-D vs Barletta-R |
DEM 96.8% |
DEM 93% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM 90% |
Tennessee (TN) Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R |
REP 83.9% |
REP 82% |
50/50 | REP Lean |
REP Lean |
REP 60% |
Texas (TX) O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R |
REP 79.0% |
REP 87% |
REP Lean |
REP Lean |
REP Lean |
REP 56% |
West Virginia (WV) Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R |
DEM 86.9% |
DEM 79% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM 58% |
Wisconsin (WI) Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R |
DEM 98.2% |
DEM 91% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM 58% |
as of October 25, 2018:
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability |
|
Arizona (AZ) Sinema-D vs McSally-R |
DEM 62.2% |
REP 63% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 52% |
Florida (FL) Nelson*-D vs Scott-R |
DEM 73.4% |
DEM 57% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 52% |
Indiana (IN) Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R |
DEM 71.1% |
REP 57% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 51% |
Minnesota (MN) – Special Election Smith*-D vs Housley-R |
DEM 89.0% |
DEM 82% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Lean |
DEM 50% |
Mississippi (MS) – Special Election Espy-D vs Hyde-Smith*-R |
REP 87.8% |
REP 91% |
REP | REP Likely |
REP Likely |
REP 60% |
Missouri (MO) McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R |
DEM 58.0% |
REP 64% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 51% |
Montana (MT) Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R |
DEM 86.6% |
DEM 64% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
50/50 | DEM 64% |
Nebraska (NE) Raybould-D vs Fischer*-R |
REP 96.7% |
REP 96% |
REP | REP | REP | REP 85% |
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Horary – AstroProbability |
|
Nevada (NV) Rosen-D vs Heller*-R |
REP 60.3% |
REP 55% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 51% |
New Jersey (NJ) Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R |
DEM 90.5% |
DEM 80% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM 55% |
North Dakota (ND) Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R |
REP 71.1% |
REP 86% |
REP Lean |
REP Lean |
REP Likely |
REP 50% |
Ohio (OH) Brown*-D vs Renacci-R |
DEM 96.7% |
DEM 89% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM 85% |
Pennsylvania (PA) Casey*-D vs Barletta-R |
DEM 97.9% |
DEM 93% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM 90% |
Tennessee (TN) Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R |
REP 76.1% |
REP 82% |
50/50 | REP Lean |
REP Lean |
REP 60% |
Texas (TX) O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R |
REP 79.2% |
REP 80% |
REP Lean |
REP Lean |
REP Lean |
REP 56% |
West Virginia (WV) Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R |
DEM 89.3% |
DEM 75% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM Likely |
DEM 58% |
Wisconsin (WI) Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R |
DEM 97.7% |
DEM 90% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM 58% |
as of October 10, 2018:
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability |
|
Arizona (AZ) Sinema-D vs McSally-R |
DEM 63.3% |
REP 53% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 52% |
Florida (FL) Nelson*-D vs Scott-R |
DEM 61.1% |
REP 51% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 52% |
Indiana (IN) Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R |
DEM 77.0% |
DEM 53% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 51% |
Minnesota (MN) – Special Election Smith*-D vs Housley-R |
DEM 89.5% |
DEM 87% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Lean |
DEM 50% |
Mississippi (MS) – Special Election Espy-D vs Hyde-Smith*-R |
REP 83.7% |
REP 91% |
REP | REP Likely |
REP Likely |
REP 60% |
Missouri (MO) McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R |
DEM 55.8% |
REP 62% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 51% |
Montana (MT) Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R |
DEM 84.3% |
DEM 64% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
50/50 | DEM 64% |
Nebraska (NE) Raybould-D vs Fischer*-R |
REP 96.7% |
REP 94% |
REP | REP | REP | REP 85% |
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Horary – AstroProbability |
|
Nevada (NV) Rosen-D vs Heller*-R |
REP 51.7% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 51% |
New Jersey (NJ) Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R |
DEM 92.2% |
DEM 78% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM 55% |
North Dakota (ND) Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R |
REP 68.0% |
REP 80% |
REP Lean |
REP Lean |
REP Lean |
REP 50% |
Ohio (OH) Brown*-D vs Renacci-R |
DEM 96.2% |
DEM 89% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM 85% |
Pennsylvania (PA) Casey*-D vs Barletta-R |
DEM 97.6% |
DEM 90% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM 90% |
Tennessee (TN) Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R |
REP 79.1% |
REP 83% |
50/50 | REP Lean |
50/50 | REP 60% |
Texas (TX) O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R |
REP 74.8% |
REP 79% |
REP Lean |
REP Lean |
REP Lean |
REP 56% |
West Virginia (WV) Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R |
DEM 88.8% |
DEM 79% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM 58% |
Wisconsin (WI) Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R |
DEM 97.3% |
DEM 87% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM 58% |
as of October 3, 2018:
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability as of Oct 9 |
|
Arizona (AZ) Sinema-D vs McSally-R |
DEM 65.8% |
DEM 58% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 52% |
Florida (FL) Nelson*-D vs Scott-R |
DEM 60.9% |
DEM 55% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 52% |
Indiana (IN) Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R |
DEM 76.1% |
DEM 52% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 51% |
Minnesota (MN) – Special Election Smith*-D vs Housley-R |
DEM 89.0% |
DEM 83% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Lean |
DEM 50% |
Mississippi (MS) – Special Election Espy-D vs Hyde-Smith*-R |
REP 83.4% |
REP 91% |
REP | REP Likely |
REP Likely |
REP 60% |
Missouri (MO) McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R |
DEM 60.8% |
REP 52% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 51% |
Montana (MT) Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R |
DEM 81.4% |
DEM 62% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
50/50 | DEM 64% |
Nebraska (NE) Raybould-D vs Fischer-R |
REP 96.8% |
REP 92% |
REP | REP | REP | REP 85% |
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Horary – AstroProbability |
|
Nevada (NV) Rosen-D vs Heller*-R |
DEM 53.1% |
DEM 65% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 51% |
New Jersey (NJ) Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R |
DEM 89.4% |
DEM 76% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Likely |
DEM Lean |
DEM 55% |
North Dakota (ND) Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R |
REP 68.0% |
REP 73% |
REP Lean |
REP Lean |
REP Lean |
REP 50% |
Ohio (OH) Brown*-D vs Renacci-R |
DEM 95.1% |
DEM 88% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM 85% |
Pennsylvania (PA) Casey*-D vs Barletta-R |
DEM 97.4% |
DEM 88% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM 90% |
Tennessee (TN) Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R |
REP 66.9% |
REP 62% |
50/50 | REP Lean |
50/50 | REP 60% |
Texas (TX) O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R |
REP 72.1% |
REP 68% |
REP Lean |
REP Lean |
50/50 | REP 56% |
West Virginia (WV) Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R |
DEM 87.6% |
DEM 76% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM 58% |
Wisconsin (WI) Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R |
DEM 96.9% |
DEM 88% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM 58% |
as of September 26, 2018:
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability as of Oct 3 |
|
Arizona (AZ) Sinema-D vs McSally-R |
DEM 69.4% |
DEM 57% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | DEM 50% |
Florida (FL) Nelson*-D vs Scott-R |
DEM 61.3% |
DEM 56% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 52% |
Indiana (IN) Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R |
DEM 76.0% |
REP 55% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 51% |
Minnesota (MN) – Special Election Smith*-D vs Housley-R |
DEM 90.3% |
DEM 83% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Lean |
DEM 50% |
Mississippi (MS) – Special Election Espy-D vs Hyde-Smith*-R |
REP 84.5% |
REP 85% |
REP | REP Likely |
REP Likely |
REP 60% |
Missouri (MO) McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R |
DEM 62.1% |
REP 52% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 51% |
Montana (MT) Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R |
DEM 85.8% |
DEM 65% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
50/50 | DEM 64% |
Nebraska (NE) Raybould-D vs Fischer-R |
REP 96.1% |
REP 93% |
REP | REP | REP | |
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Horary – AstroProbability |
|
Nevada (NV) Rosen-D vs Heller*-R |
DEM 53.7% |
DEM 63% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | DEM 50% |
New Jersey (NJ) Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R |
DEM 92.9% |
DEM 76% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Lean |
|
North Dakota (ND) Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R |
DEM 56.8% | REP 57% |
REP Lean |
REP Lean |
50/50 | REP 50% |
Ohio (OH) Brown*-D vs Renacci-R |
DEM 96.2% |
DEM 87% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM 85% |
Pennsylvania (PA) Casey*-D vs Barletta-R |
DEM 97.7% |
DEM 89% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM 90% |
Tennessee (TN) Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R |
REP 59.7% |
REP 56% |
50/50 | REP Lean |
50/50 | REP 60% |
Texas (TX) O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R |
REP 69.1% |
REP 66% |
REP Lean |
REP Lean |
50/50 | REP 56% |
West Virginia (WV) Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R |
DEM 88.3% |
DEM 80% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
|
Wisconsin (WI) Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R |
DEM 97.2% |
DEM 86% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM 58% |
as of September 19 (25), 2018:
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability as of Sept 25 |
|
Arizona Sinema-D vs McSally-R |
DEM 69.6% |
DEM 54% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 52% |
California Feinstein*-D vs De Leon-D |
DEM 99.7% |
DEM 87% |
DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Connecticut Murphy-D vs Corey-R |
DEM 99.9% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Delaware -D vs -R |
DEM 99.2% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Florida Nelson*-D vs Scott-R |
DEM 55.0% |
DEM 50% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 52% |
Hawaii Hirono*-D vs Curtis-R |
DEM 99.9% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Indiana Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R |
DEM 76.2% |
REP 53% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 51% |
Maine Ringelstein-D vs King-I vs Brakey-R |
IND 99.9% |
IND 98% |
DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Maryland Cardin-D vs Campbell-R |
DEM 99.9% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Massachusetts Warren*-D vs Diehl-R |
DEM 99.9% |
DEM 95% |
DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Horary – AstroProbability |
|
Michigan Stabenow*-D vs James-R |
DEM 99.2% |
DEM 85% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
|
Minnesota Klobuchar-D vs Newberger-R |
DEM 99.8% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Minnesota – Special Election Smith*-D vs Housley-R |
DEM 90.2% |
DEM 80% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Lean |
|
Mississippi Baria-D vs Wicker-R |
REP 98.5% |
n/a | REP | REP | REP | |
Mississippi – Special Election Espy-D vs Hyde-Smith*-R |
REP 84.3% |
REP 88% |
REP | REP Likely |
REP Likely |
|
Missouri McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R |
DEM 62.3% |
REP 51% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 51% |
Montana Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R |
DEM 87.1% |
DEM 68% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
50/50 | DEM 64% |
Nebraska Raybould-D vs Fischer-R |
REP 95.7% |
REP 94% |
REP | REP | REP | |
Nevada Rosen-D vs Heller*-R |
DEM 53.2% |
DEM 60% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | |
New Jersey Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R |
DEM 92.5% |
DEM 74% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Lean |
|
New Mexico Heinrich-D vs Rich-R |
DEM 98.2% |
DEM 94% |
DEM | DEM | DEM | |
New York Gillibrand-D vs Farley-R |
DEM 99.9% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
North Dakota Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R |
DEM 57.4% | REP 62% |
REP Lean |
REP Lean |
50/50 | |
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Horary – AstroProbability |
|
Ohio Brown*-D vs Renacci-R |
DEM 95.9% |
DEM 85% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
|
Pennsylvania Casey*-D vs Barletta-R |
DEM 95.7% |
DEM 87% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
|
Rhode Island -D vs -R |
DEM 99.9% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Tennessee Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R |
REP 60.1% |
REP 56% |
50/50 | REP Lean |
50/50 | REP 60% |
Texas O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R |
REP 66.9% |
REP 66% |
REP Lean |
REP Lean |
50/50 | REP 56% |
Utah Wilson-D vs Romney-R |
REP 99.9% |
n/a | REP | REP | REP | |
Vermont Sanders*-D/I vs Paige-R |
DEM 99.9% |
DEM 97% |
DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Virginia Kaine*-D vs Stewart-R |
DEM 98.4% |
DEM 94% |
DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Washington Cantwell-D vs Hutchison-R |
DEM 99.5% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
West Virginia Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R |
DEM 88.7% |
DEM 77% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
|
Wisconsin Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R |
DEM 97.1% |
DEM 82% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
|
Wyoming Trauner-D vs Barrasso*-R |
REP 99.9% |
n/a | REP | REP | REP |
as of September 19, 2018:
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability as of Sept 22 |
|
Arizona Sinema-D vs McSally-R |
DEM 69.6% |
DEM 54% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 52% |
California Feinstein*-D vs De Leon-D |
DEM 99.7% |
DEM 87% |
DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Connecticut Murphy-D vs Corey-R |
DEM 99.9% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Delaware -D vs -R |
DEM 99.2% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Florida Nelson*-D vs Scott-R |
DEM 55.0% |
DEM 50% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | |
Hawaii Hirono*-D vs Curtis-R |
DEM 99.9% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Indiana Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R |
DEM 76.2% |
REP 53% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 51% |
Maine Ringelstein-D vs King-I vs Brakey-R |
IND 99.9% |
IND 98% |
DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Maryland Cardin-D vs Campbell-R |
DEM 99.9% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Massachusetts Warren*-D vs Diehl-R |
DEM 99.9% |
DEM 95% |
DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Horary – AstroProbability |
|
Michigan Stabenow*-D vs James-R |
DEM 99.2% |
DEM 85% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
|
Minnesota Klobuchar-D vs Newberger-R |
DEM 99.8% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Minnesota – Special Election Smith*-D vs Housley-R |
DEM 90.2% |
DEM 80% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Lean |
|
Mississippi Baria-D vs Wicker-R |
REP 98.5% |
n/a | REP | REP | REP | |
Mississippi – Special Election Espy-D vs Hyde-Smith*-R |
REP 84.3% |
REP 88% |
REP | REP Likely |
REP Likely |
|
Missouri McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R |
DEM 62.3% |
REP 51% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 51% |
Montana Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R |
DEM 87.1% |
DEM 68% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
50/50 | |
Nebraska Raybould-D vs Fischer-R |
REP 95.7% |
REP 94% |
REP | REP | REP | |
Nevada Rosen-D vs Heller*-R |
DEM 53.2% |
DEM 60% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | |
New Jersey Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R |
DEM 92.5% |
DEM 74% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Lean |
|
New Mexico Heinrich-D vs Rich-R |
DEM 98.2% |
DEM 94% |
DEM | DEM | DEM | |
New York Gillibrand-D vs Farley-R |
DEM 99.9% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
North Dakota Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R |
DEM 57.4% | REP 62% |
REP Lean |
REP Lean |
50/50 | |
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Horary – AstroProbability |
|
Ohio Brown*-D vs Renacci-R |
DEM 95.9% |
DEM 85% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
|
Pennsylvania Casey*-D vs Barletta-R |
DEM 95.7% |
DEM 87% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
|
Rhode Island -D vs -R |
DEM 99.9% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Tennessee Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R |
REP 60.1% |
REP 56% |
50/50 | REP Lean |
50/50 | REP 60% |
Texas O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R |
REP 66.9% |
REP 66% |
REP Lean |
REP Lean |
50/50 | REP 56% |
Utah Wilson-D vs Romney-R |
REP 99.9% |
n/a | REP | REP | REP | |
Vermont Sanders*-D/I vs Paige-R |
DEM 99.9% |
DEM 97% |
DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Virginia Kaine*-D vs Stewart-R |
DEM 98.4% |
DEM 94% |
DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Washington Cantwell-D vs Hutchison-R |
DEM 99.5% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
West Virginia Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R |
DEM 88.7% |
DEM 77% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
|
Wisconsin Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R |
DEM 97.1% |
DEM 82% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
|
Wyoming Trauner-D vs Barrasso*-R |
REP 99.9% |
n/a | REP | REP | REP |
as of September 9, 2018:
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability as of Sep 17 |
|
Arizona Sinema-D vs McSally-R |
DEM 67.1% |
REP 52% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 52% |
California Feinstein*-D vs De Leon-D |
DEM 99.8% |
DEM 88% |
DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Connecticut Murphy-D vs Corey-R |
DEM 99.9% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Delaware -D vs -R |
DEM 99.2% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Florida Nelson*-D vs Scott-R |
DEM 55.1% |
DEM 54% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | |
Hawaii Hirono*-D vs Curtis-R |
DEM 99.9% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Indiana Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R |
DEM 76.5% |
REP 52% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | REP 51% |
Maine Ringelstein-D vs King-I vs Brakey-R |
IND 99.9% |
IND 96% |
DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Maryland Cardin-D vs Campbell-R |
DEM 99.9% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Massachusetts Warren*-D vs Diehl-R |
DEM 99.9% |
DEM 95% |
DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Horary – AstroProbability |
|
Michigan Stabenow*-D vs James-R |
DEM 99.2% |
DEM 85% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
|
Minnesota Klobuchar-D vs Newberger-R |
DEM 99.8% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Minnesota – Special Election Smith*-D vs Housley-R |
DEM 91.8% |
DEM 76% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Lean |
|
Mississippi Baria-D vs Wicker-R |
REP 98.2% |
n/a | REP | REP | REP | |
Mississippi – Special Election Espy-D vs Hyde-Smith*-R |
REP 83.0% |
REP 91% |
REP | REP Likely |
REP Likely |
|
Missouri McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R |
DEM 76.6% |
DEM 52% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | |
Montana Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R |
DEM 90.3% |
DEM 68% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
50/50 | |
Nebraska Raybould-D vs Fischer-R |
REP 95.3% |
REP 91% |
REP | REP | REP | |
Nevada Rosen-D vs Heller*-R |
DEM 59.1% |
DEM 63% |
50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | |
New Jersey Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R |
DEM 92.9% |
DEM 76% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Lean |
|
New Mexico Heinrich-D vs Rich-R |
DEM 98.8% |
DEM 89% |
DEM | DEM | DEM | |
New York Gillibrand-D vs Farley-R |
DEM 99.9% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
North Dakota Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R |
DEM 59.9% | DEM 62% | REP Lean |
REP Lean |
50/50 | |
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Horary – AstroProbability |
|
Ohio Brown*-D vs Renacci-R |
DEM 95.2% |
DEM 86% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
|
Pennsylvania Casey*-D vs Barletta-R |
DEM 96.0% |
DEM 88% |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
DEM Likely |
|
Rhode Island -D vs -R |
DEM 99.9% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Tennessee Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R |
REP 70.0% |
REP 57% |
50/50 | REP Lean |
50/50 | REP 60% |
Texas O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R |
REP 65.6% |
REP 61% |
REP Lean |
REP Lean |
50/50 | |
Utah Wilson-D vs Romney-R |
REP 99.9% |
n/a | REP | REP | REP | |
Vermont Sanders*-D/I vs Paige-R |
DEM 99.9% |
DEM 96% |
DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Virginia Kaine*-D vs Stewart-R |
DEM 98.7% |
DEM 94% |
DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Washington Cantwell-D vs Hutchison-R |
DEM 99.5% |
n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
West Virginia Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R |
DEM 88.4% |
DEM 72% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
|
Wisconsin Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R |
DEM 95.8% |
DEM 84% |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
DEM Lean |
|
Wyoming Trauner-D vs Barrasso*-R |
REP 99.9% |
n/a | REP | REP | REP |
as of September 9, 2018:
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability |
|
Arizona Sinema-D vs McSally-R |
n/a | DEM – 51% | 50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | |
California Feinstein*-D vs De Leon-D |
n/a | DEM – 90% | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Connecticut Murphy-D vs Corey-R |
n/a | n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Delaware -D vs -R |
n/a | n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Florida Nelson*-D vs Scott-R |
n/a | REP – 53% | 50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | |
Hawaii Hirono*-D vs Curtis-R |
n/a | n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Indiana Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R |
n/a | DEM – 52% | 50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | |
Maine Ringelstein-D vs King-I vs Brakey-R |
n/a | IND – 96% | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Maryland Cardin-D vs Campbell-R |
n/a | n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Massachusetts Warren*-D vs Diehl-R |
n/a | DEM – 95% | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Michigan Stabenow*-D vs James-R |
n/a | DEM – 83% | Likely DEM | Likely DEM | Likely DEM | |
Minnesota Klobuchar-D vs Newberger-R |
n/a | n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Minnesota – Special Election Smith*-D vs Housley-R |
n/a | DEM – 84% | Likely DEM | Likely DEM | Lean DEM | |
Mississippi Baria-D vs Wicker-R |
n/a | n/a | REP | REP | REP | |
Mississippi – Special Election -D vs Hyde-Smith*-R |
n/a | n/a | n/a | Likely REP | Likely REP | |
Missouri McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R |
n/a | Rep – 55% | 50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | |
Montana Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R |
n/a | DEM – 65% | Lean DEM | Lean DEM | 50/50 | |
Nebraska Raybould-D vs Fischer-R |
n/a | REP – 92% | REP | REP | REP | |
Nevada Rosen-D vs Heller*-R |
n/a | DEM – 63% | 50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | |
New Jersey Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R |
n/a | DEM – 77% | Likely DEM | Likely DEM | Lean DEM | |
New Mexico Heinrich-D vs Rich-R |
n/a | DEM – 89% | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
New York Gillibrand-D vs Farley-R |
n/a | n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
North Dakota Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R |
n/a | REP – 62% | Lean REP | Lean REP | 50/50 | |
Ohio Brown*-D vs Renacci-R |
n/a | DEM – 82% | Lean DEM | Likely DEM | Likely DEM | |
Pennsylvania Casey*-D vs Barletta-R |
n/a | DEM – 87% | Likely DEM | Likely DEM | Likely DEM | |
Rhode Island -D vs -R |
n/a | n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Tennessee Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R |
n/a | Rep – 55% | 50/50 | Lean REP | 50/50 | |
Texas O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R |
n/a | Rep – 60% | Lean REP | Lean REP | 50/50 | |
Utah Wilson-D vs Romney-R |
n/a | n/a | REP | REP | REP | |
Vermont Sanders*-D/I vs Paige-R |
n/a | DEM – 96% | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Virginia Kaine*-D vs Stewart-R |
n/a | DEM – 94% | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Washington Cantwell-D vs Hutchison-R |
n/a | n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
West Virginia Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R |
n/a | DEM – 74% | Lean DEM | Lean DEM | Lean DEM | |
Wisconsin Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R |
n/a | DEM – 80% | Lean DEM | Lean DEM | Lean DEM | |
Wyoming Trauner-D vs Barrasso*-R |
n/a | n/a | REP | REP | REP |
as of September 7, 2018:
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt | CNN Politics |
Politico |
Real Clear Politics |
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability |
|
Arizona Sinema-D vs McSally-R |
n/a | Dem – 51% | 50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | |
California Feinstein*-D vs De Leon-D |
n/a | DEM – 90% | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Connecticut Murphy-D vs Corey-R |
n/a | n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Delaware -D vs -R |
n/a | n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Florida Nelson*-D vs Scott-R |
n/a | REP – 53% | 50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | |
Hawaii Hirono*-D vs Curtis-R |
n/a | n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Indiana Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R |
n/a | DEM – 52% | 50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | |
Maine Ringelstein-D vs King-I vs Brakey-R |
n/a | IND – 96% | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Maryland Cardin-D vs Campbell-R |
n/a | n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Massachusetts Warren*-D vs Diehl-R |
n/a | DEM – 95% | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Michigan Stabenow*-D vs James-R |
n/a | DEM – 83% | Likely DEM | Likely DEM | Likely DEM | |
Minnesota Klobuchar-D vs Newberger-R |
n/a | n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Minnesota – Special Election Smith*-D vs Housley-R |
n/a | DEM – 84% | Likely DEM | Likely DEM | Lean DEM | |
Mississippi Baria-D vs Wicker-R |
n/a | n/a | REP | REP | REP | |
Mississippi – Special Election -D vs Hyde-Smith*-R |
n/a | n/a | n/a | Likely REP | Likely REP | |
Missouri McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R |
n/a | Rep – 55% | 50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | |
Montana Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R |
n/a | Dem – 65% | Lean DEM | Lean DEM | 50/50 | |
Nebraska Raybould-D vs Fischer-R |
n/a | REP – 92% | REP | REP | REP | |
Nevada Rosen-D vs Heller*-R |
n/a | DEM – 63% | 50/50 | 50/50 | 50/50 | |
New Jersey Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R |
n/a | DEM – 77% | Likely DEM | Likely DEM | Lean DEM | |
New Mexico Heinrich-D vs Rich-R |
n/a | DEM – 89% | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
New York Gillibrand-D vs Farley-R |
n/a | n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
North Dakota Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R |
n/a | REP – 62% | Lean REP | Lean REP | 50/50 | |
Ohio Brown*-D vs Renacci-R |
n/a | DEM – 82% | Lean DEM | Likely DEM | Likely DEM | |
Pennsylvania Casey*-D vs Barletta-R |
n/a | DEM – 87% | Likely DEM | Likely DEM | Likely DEM | |
Rhode Island -D vs -R |
n/a | n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Tennessee Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R |
n/a | Rep – 55% | 50/50 | Lean REP | 50/50 | |
Texas O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R |
n/a | Rep – 60% | Lean REP | Lean REP | 50/50 | |
Utah Wilson-D vs Romney-R |
n/a | n/a | REP | REP | REP | |
Vermont Sanders*-D vs Paige-R |
n/a | DEM – 96% | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Virginia Kaine*-D vs -R |
n/a | DEM – 94% | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
Washington Cantwell-D vs Hutchison-R |
n/a | n/a | DEM | DEM | DEM | |
West Virginia Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R |
n/a | DEM – 74% | Lean DEM | Lean DEM | Lean DEM | |
Wisconsin Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R |
n/a | DEM – 80% | Lean DEM | Lean DEM | Lean DEM | |
Wyoming Trauner-D vs Barrasso*-R |
n/a | n/a | REP | REP | REP |