Predictions Track Record – 2008 Presidential Election

Predictions for the 2008 Presidential election: Obama vs. McCain

(as of October 31, 2008)

My Projected Electoral College Map:

Final Electoral College Map Results:

Below are projections for the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election.

*Battleground States

FiveThirtyEight’s
Nate Silver
William Stickevers’
Political Contest Horary
100% accuracy 96% accuracy
Alabama McCain  McCain 
Alaska McCain  McCain 
Arkansas McCain  McCain 
California Obama Obama
Colorado* Obama Obama
Connecticut Obama Obama
Delaware Obama Obama
District of Columbia Obama Obama
Florida* Obama McCain  red-x
Georgia McCain  McCain 
Hawaii Obama Obama
Idaho Obama Obama
Illinois Obama Obama
Indiana* Obama Obama 
Iowa Obama Obama
Kansas McCain  McCain 
Kentucky McCain  McCain 
Louisiana McCain  McCain 
Maine Obama Obama
Maryland Obama Obama
Massachusetts Obama Obama
Michigan* Obama Obama
Minnesota Obama Obama
Mississippi McCain  McCain 
Missouri* McCain  Obama red-x
Montana McCain  McCain 
Nebraska McCain  McCain 
Nevada* Obama Obama
New Hampshire* Obama Obama
New Jersey Obama Obama
New Mexico* Clinton   Obama 
New York Clinton   Obama
North Carolina* Obama Obama 
North Dakota McCain  McCain 
Ohio* Obama Obama
Oklahoma McCain  McCain 
Oregon Obama Obama
Pennsylvania* Obama Obama
Rhode Island Obama Obama
South Carolina McCain  McCain 
South Dakota McCain  McCain 
Tennessee McCain  McCain 
Texas McCain  McCain 
Utah McCain  McCain 
Vermont Obama Obama
Virginia* Obama Obama
Washington Obama Obama
West Virginia McCain  McCain 
Wisconsin Obama Obama
Wyoming McCain  McCain 

Predictions for the projected winner in the battleground swing states in the 2008 Presidential Election: Obama vs. McCain

  1. Obama vs. McCain: Who will win the POPULAR VOTE in the 2008 presidential
    election?

    My
    Prediction
    Winner
    BarackObama
    BarackObama

    Obama: 52%
    McCain: 46%
    Other: 2%

  2. Obama vs. McCain: Who will take MISSOURI in the 2008 presidential race?
    My
    Prediction
    Winner
    BarackObama
    questionMark

    McCain: 49%
    Obama: 49%
    Other: 1%


  3. McCain vs. Obama: Who will take NEVADA in the 2008 presidential race?
    My
    Prediction
    Winner
    BarackObama
    BarackObama

    Obama: 53%
    McCain: 43%
    Other: 2%

  4. Obama vs. McCain: Who will take COLORADO in the 2008 presidential race?
    My
    Prediction
    Winner
    BarackObama
    BarackObama

    Obama: 54%
    McCain: 45%
    Other: 1%

  5. McCain vs. Obama: Who will take NEW MEXICO in the 2008 presidential race?
    My
    Prediction
    Winner
    BarackObama
    BarackObama

    Obama: 57%
    McCain: 42%
    Other: 1%

  6. Obama vs. McCain: Who will take MICHIGAN in the 2008 presidential race?
    My
    Prediction
    Winner
    BarackObama
    BarackObama

    Obama: 57%
    McCain: 41%
    Other: 2%

  7. Obama vs. McCain: Who will take PENNSYLVANIA in the 2008 presidential race?
    My
    Prediction
    Winner
    BarackObama
    BarackObama

    Obama: 55%
    McCain: 44%
    Other: 1%

  8. McCain vs. Obama: Who will take VIRGINIA in the 2008 presidential race?
    My
    Prediction
    Winner
    BarackObama
    BarackObama

    Obama: 52%
    McCain: 47%
    Other: 1%

  9. Obama vs. McCain: Who will take NEW HAMPSHIRE in the 2008 presidential race?
    My
    Prediction
    Winner
    BarackObama
    BarackObama

    Obama: 54%
    McCain: 45%
    Other: 1%

  10. McCain vs. Obama: Who will take INDIANA in the 2008 presidential race?
    My
    Prediction
    Winner
    BarackObama
    BarackObama

    Obama: 50%
    McCain: 49%
    Other: 1%

  11. Obama vs. McCain: Who will take OHIO in the 2008 presidential race?
    My
    Prediction
    Winner
    BarackObama
    BarackObama

    Obama: 51%
    McCain: 47%
    Other: 2%

  12. McCain vs. Obama: Who will take NORTH CAROLINA in the 2008 presidential race?
    My
    Prediction
    Winner
    BarackObama
    BarackObama

    Obama: 50%
    McCain: 49%
    Other: 1%

  13. McCain vs. Obama: Who will take FLORIDA in the 2008 presidential race?
    My
    Prediction
    Winner
    questionMark
    BarackObama

    Obama: 51%
    McCain: 48%
    Other: 1%

Horary Prediction for
2008 Presidential Election:
MICHIGAN

Posted September 14, 2008

Michigan is another “battleground” state that has gone for the Democratic presidential candidate in the past 4 presidential elections. However, the state is still competitive and Michigan is considered by both parties as one of the few states that the election will turn on, so both John McCain and Barack Obama are now spending more time and advertising there.

So the horary contest question is: “Who will take Michigan in the 2008 presidential race?” Date and place of when the horary question was asked: September 13th 2008 at 08:45 pm EDT, New York, NY.

Click on chart below to view full-size, readable chart.

MichiganThumb

Rasmussen Market “futures market” data shows that Barack Obama is currently given a 64% chance of winning the state this year while John McCain has 36% chance. Therefore the Obama campaign is assigned the 1st house as the favorite and the McCain campaign is assigned the 7th house as the underdog. The 10th house rules the prize – Michigan’s 17 Electoral College votes – and the Moon rules the electorate.

In this horary figure Taurus rises. Therefore Venus rules the Obama campaign. Venus dignified by rulership applies by conjunction to Mercury and trines the benefic North Node. This indicates that the Obama campaign’s base support is very strong but is viewed very favorably by Michigan voters. However, Venus is weakly placed in a cadent house and intercepted indicating that despite Obama’s 4 point lead his campaign is not invulnerable to setbacks and Republican attacks.

Mars rules the 7th house of the McCain campaign. Mars is essential debilitated being in its fall, weakly placed in a cadent house. Mars antiscia conjuncts Saturn, a malefic, and opposes the Moon. These testimonies show that McCain’s base support is much weaker than the latest state polls are indicating and does not have much edge with Michigan voters in regards to the economy and other domestic issues.

<p”>Conclusion: The Moon makes no aspects to either candidate’s significator. It is unlikely there will be any dramatic shifts in the state polls going into the general election. Therefore Michigan will likely continue to lean Democratic for the 2008 election.

Winner: Barack Obama

Horary Prediction for Election 2008:
FLORIDA

Posted September 15, 2008

Over the last 2 decades Florida been a decisive “battleground state” that has carried the Republican presidential candidates eight out of the last ten elections in recent history. John McCain and Barack Obama are in a very tight race in Florida with neither candidate holding more than a 3 percentage-point advantage since July. The Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of 500 likely voters conducted on September 7th 2008 shows John McCain tied with Barack Obama each at 48% of voters.

Rasmussen Markets, a “futures market”, gives John McCain significant edge over Barack Obama to win in the Sunshine State because George W. Bush easily defeated Democrat John Kerry 52% to 47% in 2004, and Obama is viewed unfavorably by 45% of registered voters.

Click on chart below to view full-size, readable chart.

FloridaChart

So the contest horary question is, “Who will take Florida in the 2008 presidential race?” Date and place of when the horary question was asked: September 9th 2008 at 1:12 pm EDT, New York, NY.

Rasmussen Markets prices imply that McCain has a 67.0% chance of winning while Obama has a 32.1% chance. Therefore the McCain campaign is assigned the 1st house as the favorite and the Obama campaign is assigned the 7th house as the underdog. The 10th house rules the prize – Florida’s 27 Electoral college votes – and the Moon rules the electorate.

In this figure Sagittarius rises, therefore Jupiter rules the 1st house of the McCain campaign. Jupiter is debilitated in the sign of Capricorn with modest strength being placed in the 2nd house indicating that McCain’s national campaign is losing momentum.

However, Jupiter is given some strength by being in his term and is in mutual reception with Mars (lord of the day and in the 10th house) by exaltation and term, indicating the McCain will have the support of its very popular Republican governor and the demographic edge at the local level to carry the state.

Mercury rules the 7th house of the Obama campaign. Mercury is peregrine indicating that voters in Florida are not at all comfortable with the idea of Obama being president. However, Mercury is strongly placed in the 10th house and receives Venus which is dignified by sign indicating that the Obama campaign has the edge in organizational strength and will benefit the most from a high voter turnout. Also Mercury is applying to the North Node and Neptune, testimonies that show that Obama will continue to make meaningful progress among Florida’s growing creative class, progressives, and voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Conclusion: The Moon’s next application is a conjunction to Jupiter. The Moon receives Saturn and Jupiter applies to Saturn by trine. This indicates that McCain is viewed most favorably by social conservative and senior citizen voters, has a significant demographic advantage among the electorate, and will likely carry the state “Sun Shine” state going down the home stretch into election day.

Winner: John McCain

Horary Prediction for Election 2008:
NEW MEXICO

Posted September 15, 2008

John McCain and Barack Obama are in a very tight race in New Mexico with neither candidate holding more then a 2 percentage-point advantage. The Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of 500 likely voters conducted on September 8th 2008 shows John McCain attracting 49% of the vote while tied with Barack Obama each at 47% of voters. McCain has made significant gains in New Mexico improving his voter favorability ratings among his base.

Despite that McCain has narrowed Obama’s lead and George W. Bush won the state by 6,000 votes out of nearly 750,000 in the 2004 election, Rasmussen Markets gives Barack Obama a 60% chance of winning New Mexico in November.

So the contest horary question is, “Who will take New Mexico in the 2008 presidential race?” Date and place of when the horary question was asked: September 11th 2008 at 12:35 pm EDT, New York, NY.

Click on chart below to view full-size, readable chart.

NewMexicoChart

Rasmussen Markets prices imply that Obama has a 60.0% chance of winning while McCain has a 32.1% chance. Therefore the McCain campaign is assigned the 1st house as the favorite and the Obama campaign is assigned the 7th house as the underdog. The 10th house rules the prize: New Mexico’s 5 Electoral College votes and, the Moon rules the electorate.

In this horary figure Gemini rises therefore Mercury rules the 1st house of the Obama campaign. Mercury is dignified by triplicity and trines both the Ascendant and North Node and of moderate strength being placed in a succedent house. This indicates that Obama is received favorably with younger and independent voters, and generally does well among the state’s Democratic majority.

Jupiter rules the 7th house of the McCain campaign. Jupiter is debilitated in the sign of Capricorn and has moderate strength being in a succedent house, indicating McCain does well with older voters (over 45), “Wal-Mart values” voters, and social conservatives.  Pluto rules terrorism and global wars. Pluto (a malefic) occupies the 7th house and receives Jupiter, indicating McCain’s “stay the course” position on the War in Iraq/Afghanistan will ultimately work to his detriment.

Conclusion: McCain’s significator Jupiter makes an applying trine to Saturn. Saturn rules the Midheaven indicating that McCain’s prospects for winning New Mexico are excellent. However, the Moon will aspect Obama’s significator Mercury by trine indicating his campaign will have the momentum going into Election Day. Mercury applies to Neptune in the 10th house by trine and is in reception with Saturn by ruler/exaltation indicating that Obama will have an edge among moderate and grass root voters. Based on the above stated testimonies the outcome in New Mexico may literally come down to hundreds of votes.

<p”>Winner: Barack Obama

Horary Prediction for Election 2008:
COLORADO

Posted September 18, 2008

Colorado is a major “battleground” state that has gone for the Republican candidate in the last three elections. This year Colorado is a critical swing state that has been extremely competitive, with neither candidate holding more of a 3 percentage-point advantage since July. The latest Zogby Interactive polling survey in Colorado shows Obama attracting 45% of the vote while McCain earns 47%.

So the contest horary question is, “Who will take Colorado in the 2008 presidential race?” Date and place of when the horary question was asked: September 14th 2008 at 05:36 pm EDT, New York, NY.

Click on chart below to view full-size, readable chart.

ColoradoChart

Rasmussen Markets, a “futures market”, gives Barack Obama a 52% chance of winning Colorado’s nine Electoral College votes this November; therefore the Obama campaign is assigned the 1st house as the favorite and the McCain campaign is assigned the 7th house as the underdog. The 10th house rules the prize – Colorado’s nine Electoral College votes – and the Moon rules the electorate.

In this horary figure Aquarius rises and Pisces is intercepted in the 1st house. Therefore both Saturn and Jupiter rule the Obama campaign. Saturn is peregrine but strongly placed angular house and Jupiter has modest placed in the benefic 11th house. These testimonies indicate that Obama’s base is solid and able to be competitive in this traditionally Republican state. However, Saturn is somewhat damaged under the Sun beams and intercepted in his opponent’s house indicating that there are political “undercurrents” for the Obama campaign to overcome.

The McCain campaign is ruled by the Sun and Mercury. The Sun is peregrine and strongly placed in McCain’s own house. Mercury is peregrine as well and of moderate strength in mutual reception to Saturn by exultation/dignity. These testimonies indicate that McCain’s Republican base is very strong able to be competitive among voters who lean toward Obama. This indicates that Obama is received favorably with younger and independent voters, and generally does well among the state’s Democratic majority.

Conclusion: Jupiter rules the 10th house of the Electoral College delegates. Jupiter is applying by trine to Obama’s significator Saturn indicting his support among social conservatives and upper middle class voters will grow giving him the edge he needs to win the state. Also, the North Node conjunct the Ascendant is a fortuitous testimony for Obama indicating that his “core” message will resonate with new and undecided voters. Finally, the Moon’s next aspect is an opposition to McCain’s significator in the 7th house, the Sun, a very negative testimony indicating that the McCain campaign will lose momentum going into Election Day. Regardless, this race is going to be very close; however, I predict Obama will win Colorado’s nine Electoral College votes by a very small margin in November.

Winner: Barack Obama

Horary Prediction for Election 2008:
VIRGINIA

Posted September 22, 2008

Virginia is a key swing state this year. There are 13 Electoral College votes at stake for the general election and the race in Virginia is still a toss up with John McCain and Barack Obama each attracting 47% support according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey. With voter trust and favorably ratings for both candidates virtually the same it is difficult to imagine a closer political race.

Virginia has a popular Democratic Governor and there are large numbers of new voter registrations that strongly lean Democratic. However, no Democrat has won Virginia since 1964; therefore most pundits give John McCain a small edge over Barack Obama to win the Old Dominion in November.

So the contest horary question is, “Who will take Virginia in the 2008 presidential race?” Date and place of when the horary question was asked: September 20th 2008 at 7:10 pm EDT, New York, NY.

Click on chart below to view full-size, readable chart.

VirginiaChart

Rasmussen Markets prices imply that McCain has a 56% chance of winning while Obama has a 44% chance. Therefore the McCain campaign is assigned the 1st house as the favorite and the Obama campaign is assigned the 7th house as the underdog. The 10th house rules the prize – Virginia’s 13 Electoral College votes – and the Moon has rulership over the electorate.

In this figure Aries is rising. Therefore Mars rules the McCain campaign. Mars is peregrine and placed in the 7th house of the Obama campaign. These testimonies indicate that the McCain campaign’s ground organization is weak and will struggle to overcome the demographic changes in Northern Virginia that is comprised of swing voters and home to one third of Virginia’s state population. Mars makes favorable aspects to Neptune and Pluto indicating that McCain’s campaign will remain competitive and focus on exploiting Obama’s weakness.

Venus, Obama’s significator, is strongly placed in the 7th house of his own campaign and dignified by sign. These are testimonies that show Obama campaign has a strong base with outstanding ground organization and strong political support across the state.

The Moon is in Gemini indicating that the Virginia electorate is comprised of young, changeable, and diverse voters. The Moon, which rules the flow of events, applies to each candidate’s significators.  The Moon passes its light from Mars (McCain) to Venus (Obama) by trine indicating high voter turnout for both candidates. Mercury’s next aspect is a conjunction to Venus, Obama’s significator. Mercury also receives Venus by rulership and triplicity. Mercury is the universal ruler of youth and students. The Moon receives Mercury indicating that young, undecided and cross over voters will likely break for Obama.

Conclusion: Jupiter, universal ruler of the Republican Party, is in the 10th house of the Electoral College. Jupiter is in detriment and does not support McCain’s significator indicating that the state’s Republican base is unable to provide the organization on the ground that he needs to ensure victory in November. On the other hand, Obama’s testimonies indicate that his campaign doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. It seems the longer he’s out on the campaign trail, the better he is known with voters in the state, the better are his future fortunes in the state of Virginia.

Winner: Barack Obama

Horary Prediction for Election 2008:
PENNSYLVANIA

Posted September 25, 2008

Pennsylvania again is a major battleground swing state. The latest Rasmussen telephone survey in Pennsylvania shows the race very close with Barack Obama attracting 48% of the vote while John McCain attracts 45%. Pennsylvania was rated earlier in the year as a “Leans Democratic” state since John Kerry won the state in 2004 by a 51% to 48% margin. However, Pennsylvania has the highest level of undecided voters (5%) among any of the swing states and is considered a “must win” for Barack Obama if he is to have any chance of victory in November. Both these factors ensure that both candidates will be campaigning heavily in the Keystone State right up to the eve of Election Day.

Click on chart below to view full-size, readable chart.

PennsylvaniaChart

So the contest horary question is, “Who will take Pennsylvania in the 2008 presidential race?” Date and place of when the horary question was asked: September 14th 2008 at 05:36 pm EDT, New York, NY.

Rasmussen Markets prices imply that Obama has a 70% chance of winning while McCain has a 33% chance. Therefore the Obama campaign is assigned the 1st house as the favorite and the McCain campaign is assigned the 7th house as the underdog. The 10th house rules the prize – Pennsylvania’s Electoral College votes – and the Moon rules the electorate.

In this figure Gemini rises therefore Mercury rules the 1st house of the Obama campaign. Mercury is dignified by triplicity and term indicating that Obama is viewed favorably by Pennsylvania voters and has a strong base support. Mercury is strong being placed in the 4th house and receives Venus which is dignified by sign. These testimonies indicate that the Obama campaign is a well-managed and productive organization that will benefit greatly from the women’s vote. However, Mercury is stationary retrograde indicating that despite the Obama’s campaign organizational strength, Pennsylvania’s state demographics and subtle political “undercurrents” work against him. However, Mercury is applying to Neptune, indicating Obama will continue to make gains among groups of discouraged and unaffiliated voters.

Sagittarius descends; therefore, Jupiter rules the 7th house of the McCain campaign.  Jupiter is strongly placed in 7th house of McCain’s campaign indicating that McCain has the demographic edge and a strong base throughout the state. However, Jupiter is essentially debilitated being in the sign of Capricorn indicating that he is less favorable compared to Obama among most voters. Jupiter is given some strength by being in his term and is in mutual reception with Saturn, lord of the 10th house by rulership and term, indicating that McCain’s core support will come from voters comprised of the religious right, social conservatives, and senior citizens, thus strengthening prospects for victory.

Conclusion: The Moon is dignified by sign and in the 1st house indicating a high voter turnout that will strongly favor Obama. The Moon’s next application is an opposition to Jupiter, McCain’s significator, a discouraging testimony showing that his campaign will stall and begin to lose voter momentum in the remaining weeks ahead. Therefore, I predict that Obama defeats McCain by a small margin and carries the state of Pennsylvania on Election Day.

Winner: Barack Obama

Horary Prediction for Election 2008:
NEW HAMPSHIRE

Posted October 3, 2008

New Hampshire again is a hotly contested swing state in this year’s presidential election. New Hampshire voted for Republican George W. Bush in 2000 then switched sides and voted for Democrat John Kerry in 2004.  New Hampshire has voted for the Democrat in three out of the last four presidential elections. However, John McCain has maintained a small lead over Barack Obama in New Hampshire for the third month in a row, according to Rasmussen Reports.  The latest Zogby Interactive poll shows McCain attracting 49% of the vote and Obama attracting 43% of the vote. John McCain is viewed favorably by 60% of the New Hampshire voters but the ongoing financial crisis on Wall Street and slowing economy makes New Hampshire very much for the taking. Therefore most pollsters have moved New Hampshire from “Leans Democratic” to “Toss-Up” category.

So the contest horary question is, “Who will take New Hampshire in the 2008 presidential race?” Date and place of when the horary question was asked: September 17th 2008 at 8:55 pm EDT, New York, NY.

Click on chart below to view full-size, readable chart.

NewHampshireChart

Rasmussen Markets prices show that Obama has a 60.0% chance of winning the Granite State in November while McCain has a 44.0% chance. Therefore the Obama campaign is assigned the 1st house as the favorite and the McCain campaign is assigned the 7th house as the underdog. The 10th house rules the prize: New Hampshire’s 5 Electoral College votes and the Moon rules the electorate.

Libra rises; therefore Venus rules the Obama campaign. Venus is dignified by sign and strongly placed on the Ascendant, testimonies indicating that Obama is viewed very favorably by most New Hampshire voters and has strong base support with outstanding ground organization.

Mars rules the McCain campaign. Mars is peregrine and essentially debilitated and weakly placed in the malefic 12th house, testimonies that show that McCain’s campaign in New Hampshire has stalled. The Moon is placed in McCain’s 7th house and receives Mars, indicating that the New Hampshire electorate is leaning toward McCain. However, the growing economic crisis is starting to erode McCain’s base as well as his support from independent and swing voters.

Conclusion: Mercury, the universal significator of youth, receives Obama’s significator – Venus – by rulership and term. This testimony suggests young people are Obama’s strongest supporters in New Hampshire. Mercury conjuncts the Ascendant, indicating a record high youth turnout that will give Obama a significant edge over John McCain on Election Day.

Winner: Barack Obama

Horary Prediction for Election 2008:
NEVADA

>Posted October 5, 2008

Although Nevada has only five Electoral College votes it has chosen the winning candidate in the last seven presidential elections. Nevada is considered a battleground swing state and considered a “Toss-Up” by most pollsters. President Bush won the state by a small margin in the 2004 election.  John McCain, viewed favorably by 54% by Nevada voters, has held a modest lead over Barack Obama since July. However Nevada is one of the three targeted southwestern states by the Obama campaign along with New Mexico and Colorado and has been making meaningful progress among Hispanic and white male voters. Also, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey now shows Obama taking a small lead for the first time, attracting 51% of the vote with John McCain attracting 47%.

So the contest horary question is, “Who will take Nevada in the 2008 presidential race?” Date and place of when the horary question was asked: October 4th 2008 at 11:45 pm EDT, New York, NY.

Click on chart below to view full-size, readable chart.

NevadaChart

Rasmussen Markets prices show that Obama has a 60.0% chance of winning Nevada in November while McCain has a 40.0% chance. Therefore the Obama campaign is assigned the 1st house as the favorite and the McCain campaign is assigned the 7th house as the underdog. The 10th house rules the prize – Nevada’s 5 Electoral College votes – and the Moon rules the electorate.

In this figure Cancer rises. Since the Moon rules to electorate we must use the next sign over Leo, to assign a proper significator. Therefore the Sun rules the Obama campaign. The Sun is Libra – its fall – and peregrine, indicating that many Nevada voters are not comfortable with the idea of an Obama being president. However the Sun is strongly placed in the 4th house showing that the Obama campaign has sufficient organizational strength to overcome the significant demographic challenges it faces. Also the Sun is applying to the North Node and Neptune, testimonies that show that Obama will continue to make gains with progressive, independent, and votes not affiliated with either party.

Saturn rules the 7th house of McCain campaign. Jupiter conjunct the 7th House cusp while benefic Venus sextiles Saturn. These fortunate testimonies indicate that McCain is highly favored by voters in Nevada and his base support is from blue collar and social conservatives. However Saturn is in Virgo, peregrine, weakly placed in the 3rd house. Saturn’s weak position indicates that the McCain campaign team is losing ground and on the defensive as Obama continues to make small but decisive gains.

Conclusion: The Moon’s next application is a square to Uranus indicating that unprecedented events will continue to occur that will disrupt the dynamics of the presidential race. Saturn will also aspect Uranus by opposition indicating that his McCain’s campaign going down the home stretch into Election Day will stall and lose momentum. The Sun’s next application is a square to Jupiter. Therefore, as more tumultuous news about the economy comes forth, Obama will slowly gain support from both rural and working class voters that will provide him the opportunity to carry the Silver State on Election Day.

Winner: Barack Obama

Horary Prediction for Election 2008:
INDIANA

Posted October 10, 2008

Indiana is a one of the most consistently Republican states in the nation. Democrats fare poorly in Indiana, winning the state only four times in the past century. The last time the Democrats carried the state was in the 1964 election when Lyndon Johnson won by a landside. President Bush won Indiana in the 2004 election by a 60% to 30% margin and was considered a “safe Republican” state by this year by most pundits. However, recent polls over the past several weeks show John McCain with a statistically insignificant lead over Barack Obama. In fact, the latest Zogby Interactive poll shows the race as “too close to call” moving Indiana from “Likely Republican” to “Toss Up” status.

The latest first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters shows McCain attracting 49% of the vote while Obama earns 47%.  So the contest horary question is, “Who will take Indiana in the 2008 presidential race?” Date and place of when the horary question was asked: September 9th 2008 at 1:12 pm EDT, New York, NY.

Click on chart below to view full-size, readable chart.

IndianaChart

Rasmussen Markets prices show that McCain has a 57% chance of winning the Hoosier’s state in November while Obama has a 47% chance. Therefore the McCain campaign is assigned the 1st house as the favorite and the Obama campaign is assigned the 7th house as the underdog. The 10th house rules the prize: Indiana’s eleven Electoral College votes and the Moon rules the electorate.

In this figure Gemini rises; therefore, Mercury rules the 1st house of the McCain campaign. The Moon makes its next application to Mercury which is dignified by triplicity, of middling strength, and in reception with Saturn (ruler of the 10th house) by dignity and exaltation. These testimonies indicate that McCain is viewed favorably by most voters, has solid base support across this most reliable Republican state, and will benefit from an enthusiastic voter turnout in November. However Mercury is debilitated being retrograde and combust the Sun, showing that McCain’s campaign has been losing traction and lacks the power to change the course of the race.

Sagittarius is on the Descendant; therefore Jupiter rules the 7th house of the Obama campaign. Jupiter is in the 7th house debilitated by fall but has some dignity being in his term, with reception with Saturn, lord of the 10th house, by rulership and term. These testimonies indicate Obama is running a well-organized grass-roots-style campaign and has a slight demographic advantage over McCain most notably in northwestern Indiana, the suburban hub of Chicago, the city that is home to his campaign. The Part of Fortune conjuncts the Midheaven and receives Jupiter. Jupiter trines the ruler of the Midheaven – Saturn – and sextiles Uranus also in the 10th, both favorable testimonies that imply an unexpected but favorable outcome for Obama.

Conclusion: Mercury is combust and retrograde indicating McCain’s campaign has lost momentum and is on the defensive as his lead in Indiana shrinks. The Moon’s last aspect is to Pluto which suggests Obama’s grass-root efforts with minority and unaffiliated voters will be successful in overcoming deeply entrenched racial “undercurrents” which will provide his campaign the much needed edge to win the Hoosier State on Election Day.

Winner: Barack Obama

Horary Prediction for Election 2008:
OHIO

Posted October 27, 2008

There are five key swing states this year. These states are Colorado, Florida, New Mexico, Virginia, and Ohio. For McCain to have any chance of winning in November he must win Ohio and any two of the remaining key swing states. President Bush carried the state in the 2004 election by small margin, and Ohio has been trending Republican for the past several weeks. However the recent chaos on Wall Street and the constant stream of bad news from Washington has dramatically changed the course of the presidential race. Barack Obama has been running a very competitive campaign making steady progress with independent and unaffiliated voters in Ohio. The latest Zogby Battleground States Poll for Ohio has Barack Obama with a modest lead of 48.7% and John McCain at 45.1%, with 1.9% of voters still undecided.

So the contest horary question is, “Who will take Ohio in the 2008 presidential race?” Date and place of when the horary question was asked: October 27th 2008 at 01:45 am EDT, New York, NY.

Click on chart below to view full-size, readable chart.

Ohio2Chart

Rasmussen Markets prices show that Obama has a 77% chance of winning the Buckeye State in November while McCain has a 23 % chance. Therefore the Obama campaign is assigned the 1st house as the favorite and the McCain campaign is assigned the 7th house as the underdog. The 10th house rules the prize – Ohio’s 20 Electoral College votes – and the Moon has rulership over the electorate.

In this figure Leo rises; therefore, the Sun rules the Obama campaign. The Sun is peregrine and weakly placed in a cadent house, an indication of soft voter support most likely due to Ohio’s complex demographics and mixture of culturally diverse communities. However, the Part of Fortune occupies the 1st house and the Sun’s antiscia conjuncts the 7th house cusp, fortuitous testimonies that augur victory for Obama. The Part of Fortune receives Mercury, universal ruler of youth. The Moon’s next application is to Mercury indicating that Obama’s massive mobilization “get-out-the-vote” efforts with young and unaffiliated voters will be decisive in winning in key districts throughout the state.

Aquarius is descending; therefore Saturn rules the McCain campaign. Saturn is dignified by term and is strongly placed in an angular house indicating McCain is well favored by Ohio voters and has a solid base of support among middle class upper income conservative voters. However, Saturn’s placement placed in his opponent’s house (Obama) and applying opposition to Uranus indicates that his campaign has lost traction (his lead in among Ohio polls have all but disappeared), and lacks the power to change the course of the race. Venus, ruler of the 10th house, applies by square to Saturn indicating that McCain no longer has a feasible state election strategy to catch Obama and win in November.

Conclusion: The presidential race in Ohio is no longer “to close to call”. The once formidable McCain campaign has stalled and is in a very bad way. Although it may be too early to write off John McCain, the horary testimonies show a sense of “gloom and doom” surrounding his campaign as his fortunes in the Buckeye State decline. As for Obama his once improbable campaign does not show any signs of slowing down as he continues to outspend and outpace his rival. Expect Obama to surge past McCain in the polls leading up to Election Day and win Ohio with a decisive victory.

Winner: Barack Obama

Posted October 16, 2008

There are five key swing states this year. These states are Colorado, Florida, New Mexico, Virginia, and Ohio. For McCain to have any chance of winning in November he must win Ohio and any one of the remaining key swing states. President Bush carried the Ohio  in both the 2000 and 2004 elections, and the state has been trending Republican for the past three months. However the constant stream of bad news from Washington and recent chaos on Wall Street has dramatically changed the course of the race. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey has Barack Obama tied with John McCain in Ohio each attracting 49% of the vote.  Seventy-seven percent of voters say they are certain of who they will vote for, while 23% say there is still a chance they can change their minds.

So the contest horary question is, “Who will take Ohio in the 2008 presidential race?” Date and place of when the horary question was asked: October 16th 2008 at 10:10 am EDT, New York, NY.

Click on chart below to view full-size, readable chart.

Rasmussen Markets prices show that Obama has a 70% chance of winning the Buckeye State in November while McCain has a 30% chance. Therefore the Obama campaign is assigned the 1st house as the favorite and the McCain campaign is assigned the 7th house as the underdog. The 10th house rules the prize -Ohio’s 20 Electoral College votes – and the Moon rules the electorate.

In this figure Scorpio rises; therefore, Mars rules the Obama campaign. Mars is essentially dignified by and applies to Saturn by trine. This favorable testimony shows that Obama has been making slow but steady progress among conservative and working class voters in this traditionally Republican state. Although Obama is the national front-runner, Mars placement in the malefic 12th indicates his campaign may be fraught with complications due to the state’s mixture of culturally diverse communities. Meaning what may appeal to voters residing in Columbus and Cincinnati may distance those living in Akron and Hamilton. Obama’s massive voter-mobilization effort will be decisive in Ohio since it can make a difference of up to 3 points in a tight contest.

Taurus is descending; therefore, Venus rules the McCain campaign. Venus is debilitated in the late degree of Scorpio and placed on the Ascendant.
Although the McCain campaign has lost traction in recent weeks, he still leads among white and middle-income voters. Obama has a slight lead among Independents in Ohio, but he is losing over ten percent of Democrats to McCain. The Moon’s last aspect is an opposition to Venus. Oppositions in contest charts show a limited degree of success in that they bring the event to pass but may not be worth the effort.

Outcome: Inconclusive. The race in Ohio is still in play. For the moment the Republicans have the edge, but the astrological testimonies do not point to a McCain victory at this time.

Winner: To close to call.

Horary Prediction for Election 2008:
MISSOURI

Posted November 20, 2008

NOTE: John McCain won Missouri. It was close. His margin of victory was only 3632 votes out of 2.9 million cast. This means the final electoral vote tally is 365 to 173, more than 2 to 1 for Obama. For Missourians, the downside of going for McCain is the state loses its much-heralded bellwether status–it has voted with the winner every time since 1956–except 2008.

Posted October 22, 2008

Missouri is the best bellwether state when it comes to presidential elections.  For the past 100 years it has picked the winner in every presidential election except once in 1956.  President Bush won the state by three points in the 2000 election and seven points in 2004. The state has been trending Republican throughout the year, but the ongoing economic crisis has changed the dynamics of the race, allowing Obama to open a stable lead over McCain in recent weeks. The latest Zogby Interactive Poll shows Obama attracting 49% of the vote while McCain attracting 42% of the vote, changing Missouri as a “Likely Republican” to “Toss-Up”.

So the contest horary question is, “Who will take Missouri in the 2008 presidential race?” Date and place of when the horary question was asked: September 14th 2008 at 05:36 pm EDT, New York, NY.

Click on chart below to view full-size, readable chart.

MissouriChart

Rasmussen “futures” Markets prices gives Barack Obama has a 61% chance of winning while John McCain has a 42% chance. Therefore the Obama campaign is assigned the 1st house as the favorite and the McCain campaign is assigned the 7th house as the underdog. The 10th house rules the prize – Missouri’s 11 Electoral College votes – and the Moon rules the electorate.
Sagittarius rises; therefore Jupiter rules the 1st house of the Obama campaign.  Jupiter is strongly placed in the 1st house of the campaign indicating that Obama has the demographic edge and a solid base support throughout the state. However, Jupiter is essentially debilitated by fall indicating he less favored by voters when compared to McCain. Jupiter is given some strength by being in his term and is in mutual reception with Venus lord of the 10th house by rulership and triplicity, showing Obama will benefit from a strong women’s turnout on Election Day. Jupiter also applies to Saturn by trine showing that Obama will attract Republican crossover voters and Independents that initially supported McCain.

Pluto is in the 1st house indicating that Obama will get the support from minority, discouraged and unaffiliated voters. However, Pluto is considered a malefic and despite the Obama’s organizational strength, there are subtle racial “undercurrents” that work against him. However, the possibility of a “Bradley Effect” (a phenomenon where black candidates poll much better than they do on election night) is negated by the Sun’s (universal ruler of Presidents) application by trine to Pluto.

Gemini is on the Descendant; therefore Mercury rules the 7th house of the McCain campaign. Mercury is peregrine and weakly placed in the 9th house indicating that McCain’s base support is weakening, and his campaign is both off “message” and losing momentum.  However Mercury is conjunct the Midheaven and in reception with Saturn by sign/exultation indicating that in spite of his campaign’s internal issues McCain will inspire a large turnout comprised of social and religious conservatives, senior citizens, and “Wal-Mart” value voters. Mercury also applies to the benefic North Node by trine indicating that that the history favors the Republicans McCain will benefit from that historical trend.

Conclusion: As of this writing the race for Missouri is still in play. Obama may be favored to win and have a modest advantage is the latest polls, but the astrological testimonies, like in Ohio, augur that the Republicans have the edge. However Mars, universal ruler of men under 40 years of age, will sextile Jupiter – Obama’s ruler. This testimony indicates that many undecided male voters who have been leaning toward McCain will break for Obama. Also the Moon’s last aspect is trine to Pluto indicating Obama will likely pickup a sizable share of leaners cutting into McCain’s support base. Therefore, I predict that Obama will defeat McCain by a razor thin margin and carry the Show Me State on Election Day.

Winner: Barack Obama

Horary Prediction for Election 2008:
NORTH CAROLINA

Posted October 24, 2008

North Carolina has gone Republican nine out of the ten past presidential elections. In fact, no Democrat has won North Carolina in a presidential election since 1976.  President Bush won the state by a 12% margin in 2004 and John McCain has the support of 89% of North Carolina Republicans. However, Barack Obama has been running a highly competitive campaign in North Carolina and competing hard for votes in historically Republican districts, making this once likely GOP state a “Toss Up”. The latest Rasmussen telephone survey in North Carolina shows John McCain with a modest lead at 51% and Barack Obama at 48%. Like Virginia and Ohio, North Carolina is a “must win” for McCain if he is to have any chance of winning the presidential election in November.

So the contest horary question is, “Who will take North Carolina in the 2008 presidential race?” Date and place of when the horary question was asked: October 24th 2008 at 12:35 pm EDT, New York, NY.

Click on chart below to view full-size, readable chart.

NorthCarolinaChart

Rasmussen Markets gives that Barack Obama has a 68% chance of winning the Tar Heel State while John McCain has a 32% chance. Therefore the Obama campaign is assigned the 1st house as the favorite and the McCain campaign is assigned the 7th house as the underdog. The 10th house rules the prize -North Carolina’s 15 Electoral College votes – and the Moon rules the electorate.

In this horary figure Capricorn rises; therefore, Saturn rules the Obama campaign. Saturn is peregrine but has moderate strength in a succedent house. Saturn’s placement in the malefic 8th house weakens his ability to overcome North Carolina’s cultural and racial demographics. However, benefic Jupiter placed in the 1st house trines and receives Saturn by ruler and term. This testimony strengthens Obama’s prospects indicating that his campaign will continue to gain steady ground among cross-over voters from suburban and rural areas throughout the state.

Since the Moon, the universal ruler of the common people, shows the general flow of the electorate we must use the next sign round from the 7th house cusp which is Leo; therefore, the Sun rules the McCain campaign. The Sun is peregrine but strongly placed on the Midheaven indicating McCain has a major demographic advantage over his rival. Mars, ruler of the 10th house, receives the Sun by sign and term, an indication that the plurality of North Carolina voters expect McCain to carry the state in November.

Conclusion: The Moon’s next aspect is a sextile to Mars (ruler of the 10th) and passes her light to Jupiter (1st house) and Saturn (Obama’s significator), indicating that voter turnout that will highly favor Obama. Mars’ sextile to Jupiter and Saturn are favorable aspects that augur good fortune for Obama’s campaign and shows that time is on his side to “close the deal” with North Carolina voters as the contest enters its final days.

Winner: Barack Obama

Horary Prediction for Election 2008:
POPULAR VOTE FOR PRESIDENT

Posted October 31, 2008

The latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll shows the race static for the past week with Obama attracting 50.2%, and McCain 43.3%. Pollster John Zogby says: “With less than a week to go, today’s numbers are not a good development for McCain. There is no momentum for him, and the clock is starting to run short. Worse news for McCain today is that Obama hit 50% in the single day of polling, while he dropped back to the low 40.  Obama now leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton’s 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans.”

So the horary question is, “Who will win the Popular Vote in the 2008 Presidential Election?” Date and place of when the horary question was asked: October 29th 2008 at 3:20 pm EDT, New York, NY.

Click on chart below to view full-size, readable chart.

PopularVoteChart

Rasmussen Markets prices show that Obama has an 86% chance of winning in November while McCain has a 14% chance. Therefore the Obama campaign is assigned the 1st house as the favorite, the McCain campaign is assigned the 7th house as the underdog, and the 10th house rules the prize: The Popular Vote.

Pisces is on the Ascendant; Venus rules the Obama campaign. Virgo is on the Descendant, therefore Mercury rules the McCain campaign. Sagittarius is on the Midheaven, therefore Jupiter rules the Popular Vote outcome. The Moon rules the Electorate.

Below is a numerical strength assessment of each candidate based on fortitudes and debilities of the planets loosely based on a table of factors from Christian Astrology by William Lilly.

PresCandidateTestimonies

The latest RCP general election composite poll for October 30th 2008 shows Barack Obama leading with 49.8% of the vote and John McCain at 43.7%. Using the numerical scoring as a guide to judgment, Obama should easily exceed 50% popular vote. Conversely, we can expect only a moderate rise in voter turnout for McCain’s.

These results seem to correlate well with Andrew Gelman, a professor of statistics and political science at Columbia University, study showing how the popular vote for the party incumbent in the White House relates to economic growth. Based on his model, Obama is predicted to get 53% of the vote.

ForecastElectionsGraph

Noted political pundit Charlie Cook has pointing out several other factors that indicate a huge win for Obama next week:

  • No candidate this far back out over the past two weeks has ever won.
  • Early voting is going strong and even if something big happens, those votes are already cast.
  • The Democrats have a 10% advantage in party registration; in 2004 it was even.
  • Obama is outspending McCain 4 to 1 in many states.
  • Obama is safe in all the Kerry states and ahead in half a dozen states Bush won.

Prediction: Barack Obama will be the country’s next leader, winning well over 50% of the popular vote and most, but not all, of the swing states.

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