2009 Predictions: U.S. Economy – Real Estate

These predictions were originally posted on my website www.williamstickevers.com on January 10 and 25, 2009. 

Economy: Real Estate

  • The U.S. housing crisis will continue to deepen with existing home sales dropping another 12 percent while existing home prices fall another 5 percent as the nationwide inventory of foreclosed homes and other distressed properties reach record levels. (Jan. 25, 2009)    

  • Commercial Realty Collapse in 2009: The next major development in the economic crisis will be the collapse of the commercial real estate sector due to widespread overcapacity of major retail chains, major shopping malls, strip malls, and nail salons. The eagerness for banks and lending institutions to finance commercial real-estate transactions will dry up, resulting in canceled expansion plans, increasing job layoffs, and declining tax revenue. (Jan. 10, 2009)
    NOTE (7/22/09): (Bloomberg) U.S. commercial property prices fell 7.6 percent in May from a month earlier, bringing the total decline to 35 percent since the market’s peak, Moody’s Investors Service said in a report this week. Commercial properties in the U.S. valued at more than $108 billion are now in default, foreclosure or bankruptcy, almost double than at the start of the year, Real Capital Analytics Inc. said earlier this month.

    NOTE(4/16/09): NEW YORK (Reuters) – General Growth Properties Inc, the second-largest U.S. mall owner, declared bankruptcy on Thursday in the biggest real estate failure in U.S. history. The Chicago-based company, which owns such valuable malls as Fashion Show in Las Vegas and Faneuil Hall Marketplace in Boston, listed total assets of $29.56 billion and total debt of $27.29 billion. General Growth’s filing in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan makes it one of the largest nonfinancial companies to succumb to the global financial crisis. It is also the biggest bankruptcy of a U.S. real estate company, according to BankruptcyData.com.
    NOTE (2/19/09): Retail consultant Howard Davidowitz of
    Davidowitz & Associates as of February 19th
    predicts that 220,000 stores may close this year as more Americans begin to save and spend less. Among the brandname stores Davidowitz says are in trouble:  

  • Nordstrom
  •  Neiman Marcus
  • Tiffany
  • Jeweler Zale Corp.
  • Saks
  • J.C. Penney
  • Sears
  • Six Flags
  • Macy’s

2009 Predictions: U.S. Economy – General

These predictions were originally posted on my website www.williamstickevers.com on January 10, 2009.  The information from the Reuters report was posted on April 29, 2009.

Economy: General U.S.

  • In 2009 the nation will continue to undergo a fierce economic contraction that began during the financial panic of 2008. The massive deleveraging of the nation’s equities market, along with a declining dollar followed by hyper-inflation will devastate the nation’s financial brand. (Jan. 10, 2009)
    NOTE: WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. economy contracted at a steeper-than-expected pace in the first quarter, weighed down by sharp declines in exports and business inventories, according government data on Wednesday that showed the economy was still deep in recession. Gross domestic product, which measures total goods and services output within U.S. borders, dropped at a 6.1 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said, after shrinking 6.3 percent in the fourth quarter. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast GDP falling at a 4.9 percent rate in the January-March quarter. Output has declined for three straight quarters for the first time since 1974-1975. (April 29, 2009)
  • The U.S. recession will increases in severity throughout 2009 becoming a full-scale depression by early 2010. (Jan. 10, 2009) 

  • Due to extreme economic stress the U.S. stock market will undergo series of major corrections in 2009 with the Dow possibly going below 4000. (Jan. 10, 2009) 

  • Despite the fact that Americans are drowning in debt, due to the current economic woes, we will see an overall increase in the rate of consumer credit card spending. (Jan. 10, 2009) 

  • The $700 billion government bail out that was passed by Congress in December will prove to be insufficient in freeing up liquidity in the financial markets to allow credit to properly flow again. The Rasmussen Employment Index, a monthly measure of U.S. worker confidence in the employment market, will fall to an all time record low by the end of 2009. (Jan. 10, 2009)

2009 Predictions: U.S. Economy – Car Companies

These predictions were originally posted on my website www.williamstickevers.com on January 10, 2009.  The note on CNN’s report was originally posted on May 14, 2009.

Economy: Car Companies

  • Chrysler Corporation will file for bankruptcy by December 2010. (Jan. 10, 2009)
    NOTE: CNN – Chrysler says it will close 789 dealerships as part of its bankruptcy restructuring plan (May 14th, 2009)   

  • Regardless of the automotive industry bailout General Motors will still declare bankruptcy by the end of 2009. (Jan. 10, 2009)

2009 Predictions: U.S. Economy – Job Loss

 The following predictions were posted on my website www.williamstickevers.com earlier this year, on January 10, 2009.  Statistics from Associated Press were added on April 3, 2009.

Economy: Job Loss

  • Job losses in the U.S. will continue this year with the official jobless rate to exceed to 8.2 percent by the end of 2009. (Jan. 10, 2009)
    NOTE: WASHINGTON (AP) — The nation’s unemployment rate jumped to 8.5 percent in March, the highest since late 1983, as a wide swath of employers eliminated 663,000 jobs. It’s fresh evidence of the toll the recession has inflicted on America’s workers, and economists say there’s no relief in sight. If part-time and discouraged workers are factored in, the unemployment rate would have been 15.6 percent in March, the highest on records dating to 1994, according to Labor Department data released Friday. The average work week in March dropped to 33.2 hours, a new record low. Since the recession began in December 2007, the economy has lost a net total of 5.1 million jobs, with almost two-thirds of the losses occurring in the last five months. (April 03, 2009) 
  • Consumer confidence will continue to decline due to large scale layoffs, job insecurity, and deteriorating markets for housing. (Jan. 10, 2009)    
  • The “under-employed” will become the new household word in 2009 as millions of discouraged American workers that have reluctantly taken part-time work because they’ve stopped looking for full-time jobs. (Jan. 10, 2009)    
  • According to reports out of Washington, Americans suffered a net loss of 2.4 million jobs during 2008. By the end of the 2009, we can expect an additional net loss of 2.6-3.5 million jobs. (Jan. 10, 2009)    
  • Riots will take place in some parts of the United States where unemployment levels are particularly high and the economic disparity between the rich and poor increases. (Jan. 10, 2009)    
  • The Rasmussen Employment Index, a monthly measure of U.S. worker confidence in the employment market, will fall to an all time record low by the end of 2009. (Jan. 10, 2009)
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