Category Archives: Predictions-2012 US Election

Election 2012: Why I Was Wrong

Let me start off by saying I knew by late May this Presidential election was going to be a close race due to an under-performing economy with a high degree of uncertainty because of the Uranus-Pluto Square Alignments and the Mercury Retrograde effect on Election Day.

For those of you who send me nasty and derogatory  emails and for those who sent in reasoned arguments that I was wrong, please be assured that I will be on a diet of crow for some time.

Also, congratulations are in order to re-elected President Barack Obama, who won 332 Electoral College votes (when the final votes in Florida are fully counted), and the 31 world-class astrologers who correctly predicted that President Obama would win re-election.

On November 8, 2012, the RealClearPolitics state poll aggregation indicated that President Obama was slated to score 290 electoral votes to Mitt Romney’s 248. Because of errors in pre-polling, using 2008 assumptions by most pollsters that the 2012 Voter ID makeup would remain the same (39% Democrat / 32% Republican / 29% Independent), and a strong Get-Out-The-Vote operation in the 9 key swing states on either side, I conjectured that most of the polls would be off by a number of points in either direction. I believed using contest horary snapshots of based on the date and time a poll was published, I  could determine which candidate was incrementally outperforming in the polls, and could accurately speculate where the vote projection would be on Election Day, as I did so successively in both the 2008 and 2010 mid-term elections.

Based on numerous horary snapshots based on published poll data sources, I concluded that Romney would outperform the composite polling aggregate by 3 points in most every battleground state, enough to deprive Obama of his demographic advantage in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, giving him an electoral vote majority of  291 Electoral Votes and slightly over 50% of the National Vote. However, Romney’s momentum slowed to a screeching halt as the devastating cyclone Sandy blew the campaign off course and allowed the President to project leadership at the head of a multi-state disaster response, neutralizing Romney’s gains in the swing states after his command performance in his first debate with a lackluster Obama.

The final contest horary snapshots of the final polls on the evening of November 5th, reflected a much close race with mixed testimonies for both candidates, but I gave the edge to Romney since Gallup indicated that voter turnout for Obama will be lower than in 2008, and the fact that Romney led for 12 straight days with margins of six points with Independent voters that composed approximately 30% of the electorate, most of that time in the combined 11 key swing states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012 up to October 29th.

However, Obama was able regain considerable momentum in the final days of the campaign and reverse the so-called “Incumbent Re-Election Rule” that states nearly 80% of the time when the challenger has been found to be an acceptable choice as in this election, at least ¾ of the undecided will vote for the challenger.

On November 5th the RCP national composite poll had Romney’s average at 47.3% and Obama’s average at 47.6%, with 4.8% of registered voters undecided. The most recent Exit Poll data revels that a majority of undecided voters began to break heavily for the President giving him a significant 3.6% advantage with no additional votes going to Romney. The last-minute undecided voter  turnout for the incumbent President, an anomaly that is unprecedented based on my understanding of  modern presidential elections, was a factor that I was not able to detect in my political speculations and foresee in my horary judgments. So I was wrong.

Although I take no pleasure in finding I have been wrong, I also realize it is an opportunity to learn more and learn from those astrologers that called it right.

Over the next few weeks, as many of us will begin to speculate about the approaching Mayan Calendar End Date on December 21st and the coming Fiscal Cliff on January 1st, 2013, I will continue to prowl through the 2012 election statistics and vote data and compare the results with my published horary speculations and polling sources, to learn much more about where I came up short, and more importantly determine the national political dynamic of Tuesday’s election, where nothing has changed with Barack Obama remaining as President, the Democrats remaining in control of the Senate with a non-filibuster-proof majority, and the Republicans remaining in control of the House of Representatives.

Presidential Election Electoral College Map Projection: November 06th – 11:15 AM EST

The final general election horary forecast has Mitt Romney projected to win 295 electoral votes while Barack Obama would win in states worth 243 electoral votes, according the forecasting model using political contest horary in conjunction with polling trends of the 11 key swing states over the past 13 days.  The 11 key swing states are those won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Below is the contest horary data of the 11 key swing states, using Intrade predictions  and  the latest non-partisan polling data to project the winner:

Colorado:
Romney 50% vs. Obama 48 – November 1st, 2012 2:59 PM EDT, Asbury Park, N.J. – Rasmussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Romney at 52% – Obama 48% chance.
Predicted Winner: 50-48 Romney — a surprise for many

Florida:
Romney 50% vs. Obama 48% -October 26th, 2012 8:37 AM EDT, Asbury Park, N.J. – Rasmussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Romney at 52% – Obama 48% chance.
Predicted Winner: 51-48 Romney –closer then expected.

Iowa:
Obama 49% vs. Romney 49%  – November 5th, 2012 2:28 PM EST, Asbury Park, N.J.  – Ramussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 69% – Obama 42% chance
Predicted Winner: 50-48 Romney — many don’t expect this

Michigan:
Obama 51% vs. Romney 47%  – November 1st, 2012 9:26 AM EST, Asbury Park, N.J.  – Ramussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 94% – Romney 14% chance
Predicted Winner: 50-48 Obama — closer than expected

Nevada:
Obama vs. Romney  – October 24th, 2012 08:22 AM EDT, Asbury Park, N.J. – Rasmussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 80% – Romney 12% chance
Predicted Winner: 51-48 Obama — much closer than expected

New Hampshire:
Obama 50% vs. Romney 48% – November 5th, 2012 2:28 PM EST, Asbury Park, N.J.  – Ramussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 67% – Obama 33% chance
Predicted Winner: 50-48 Romney — may be a true bellwether of the popular vote

North Carolina:
Romney 52 vs. Obama 46  – October 27th, 2012 8:59 AM EDT, Asbury Park, N.J. – Rasmussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Romney at 79% – Obama 20% chance
Predicted Winner: 53 – 45 Romney — not as close as expected

Ohio:
Obama vs. Romney  – Obama 50% vs. Romney 48% – November 5th, 2012 10:49 AM EST, Asbury Park, N.J.  – Ramussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 65% – Romney 31% chance
Predicted Winner: 50-49  Romney — the surprise of the night

Pennsylvania:
Obama vs. Romney  – Obama 47% vs. Romney 47% – November 5th, 2012 4:29 PM EST, Winter Gardens, FL  – Gravis Marketing
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 83% – Romney 15% chance
Predicted Winner: 50-48  Obama —  much closer than expected

Virginia:
Obama 48% vs. Romney 50%  – November 5th, 2012 8:53 AM EST, Asbury Park, N.J.  – Ramussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 60% – Romney 39% chance
Predicted Winner: 51 -48 Romney — very close

Wisconsin:
Obama 49% vs. Romney 49%  – November 1st, 2012 11:35 AM EDT, Asbury Park, N.J.  – Ramussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 77% – Romney 22% chance
Predicted Winner: 51-49 Romney — a real squeaker and surprise

Final Swing State Daily Tracking Of The Combined 11 Key States:
Obama 46% vs. Romney 50% – October 29th, 2012 10:15 AM EDT, Asbury Park, N.J.  – Rasmussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 60% – Romney 39% chance
Predicted Winner: 51-48 Romney — extremely close electoral college race

National:
Obama (48%) vs. Romney (49%) – November 06th, 2012 7:36 AM EST, Asbury Park, N.J.  – Rasmussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 70% – Romney 30% chance
Predicted Winner: 50 -48 Romney — very close, by a razor-thin margin.

 

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver William Stickevers, Political Contest Horary  FINAL RESULT
Colorado  Obama red-x Romney 50% Obama
Florida  Obama red-x Romney 51% Obama
Iowa  Obama red-x Romney 50% Obama
Michigan  Obama Obama 51% Obama
New Hampshire  Obama red-x Romney 50% Obama
North Carolina  Romney Romney 53% Romney
Ohio  Obama red-x Romney 50% Obama
Pennsylvania  Obama Obama 50% Obama
Virginia  Obama red-x Romney 51% Obama
Wisconsin  Obama red-x Romney 51% Obama
Electoral College (based on Final Swing State Daily Tracking Of The Combined 11 Key States)  Obama red-x Romney 51%  Obama
National  Obama red-x Romney 50% Obama

2012 Presidential Election Electoral College Map Projection: November 06th – 1:50 AM EST

On the eve of the general election,  Mitt Romney is projected to win 295 electoral votes while Barack Obama would win in states worth 243 electoral votes, according the forecasting model using political contest horary in conjunction with polling trends of the 11 key swing states over the past 13 days.  The 11 key swing states are those won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Below is the contest horary data of the 11 key swing states, using Intrade predictions  and  the latest non-partisan polling data to project the winner:

Colorado: Romney 50% vs. Obama 48 – November 1st, 2012 2:59 PM EDT, Asbury Park, N.J. – Rasmussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Romney at 52% – Obama 48% chance.
Predicted Winner: 50-48 Romney — a surprise for many

Florida: Romney 50% vs. Obama 48% -October 26th, 2012 8:37 AM EDT, Asbury Park, N.J. – Rasmussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Romney at 52% – Obama 48% chance.
Predicted Winner: 51-48 Romney –closer then expected.

Iowa:  Obama 49% vs. Romney 49%  – November 5th, 2012 2:28 PM EST, Asbury Park, N.J.  – Ramussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 69% – Obama 42% chance
Predicted Winner: 50-48 Romney — many don’t expect this

Michigan: Obama 51% vs. Romney 47%  – November 1st, 2012 9:26 AM EST, Asbury Park, N.J.  – Ramussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 94% – Romney 14% chance
Predicted Winner: 50-48 Obama — closer then expected

Nevada: Obama vs. Romney  – October 24th, 2012 08:22 AM EDT, Asbury Park, N.J. – Rasmussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 80% – Romney 12% chance
Predicted Winner: 51-48 Obama — much closer then expected

New Hampshire: Obama 50% vs. Romney 48% – November 5th, 2012 2:28 PM EST, Asbury Park, N.J.  – Ramussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 67% – Obama 33% chance
Predicted Winner: 50-48 Romney — maybe a true bellwether of the popular vote

North Carolina: Romney 52 vs. Obama 46  – October 27th, 2012 8:59 AM EDT, Asbury Park, N.J. – Rasmussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Romney at 79% – Obama 20% chance
Predicted Winner: 53 – 45 Romney — not as close as expected

Ohio: Obama vs. Romney  – Obama 50% vs. Romney 48% – November 5th, 2012 10:49 AM EST, Asbury Park, N.J.  – Ramussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 65% – Romney 31% chance
Predicted Winner: 50-49  Romney — the surprise of the night

Pennsylvania: Obama vs. Romney  – Obama 47% vs. Romney 47% – November 3rd, 2012 11:56 PM EDT, Pittsburgh, PA  – Tribune-Review/Susquehanna
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 83% – Romney 15% chance
Predicted Winner: 50-48  Obama — closer then expected

Virginia: Obama 48% vs. Romney 50%  – November 5th, 2012 8:53 AM EST, Asbury Park, N.J.  – Ramussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 60% – Romney 39% chance
Predicted Winner: 51 -48 Romney — very close

Wisconsin: Obama 49% vs. Romney 49%  – November 1st, 2012 11:35 AM EDT, Asbury Park, N.J.  – Ramussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 77% – Romney 22% chance
Predicted Winner: 51-49 Romney — a real squeaker and surprise

Final Swing State Daily Tracking Of The Combined 11 Key States:
Obama 46% vs. Romney 50% – October 29th, 2012 10:15 AM EDT, Asbury Park, N.J.  – Rasmussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 60% – Romney 39% chance
Predicted Winner: 51-48 Romney — by a thin 2% margin

Note: I will conduct my final Election horary forecast based on the final swing state polls and post the projected results Tuesday morning at 10:00 AM EST. 

Election 2012 – Ohio: Obama (49%) vs. Romney (49%) – Who Is Winning?

Ohio Poll: Romney, Obama Tied Among Likely Voters At 49% Each.

A new Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News Organization Poll reiterated what other polls have shown, which is that the president and challenger continue to be in an extremely tight race. A Rasmussen poll conducted Oct. 23 showed the two men tied with 48 percent, a Suffolk poll conducted Oct. 18-21 found them tied at 47 percent.

The latest Ohio poll shows President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney each with 49 percent support from likely voters. That’s a slip for the president, who took 51 percent of likely voters in the newspaper group’s September poll.

The results of this poll was published on the web today – October 28th, 2012 at 12:01 am EDT, in Cincinnati, Ohio. The political “contest” horary is based on this event. Intrade, the largest predictions market in the world, gives Obama a 67% chance of winning Ohio with Romney only a modest 33% chance. Therefore the President is clearly the Favorite with odds-makers and Romney the Underdog.

1st House: Obama Campaign
7th House: Romney Campaign
10th House: The Prize – Ohio Electoral College Votes
The Moon: The Ohio Electorate

In the horoscope, we have a consideration before judgment present with the Ascendant is near the sign boundary with 1 degree of Leo rising, a testimony that indicates it is still too early to render judgment on a winner in this political contest as there are still unforeseen developments to occur in this race that will impinge on the outcome. However, we can still gain insight into the state of the Ohio race since a horary represents an informational discharge of energy at the moment the question on the basis of the Hermetic dictum, “As above, as every now and again so below“.

The Moon in the horary figure sits atop of the chart conjunct the Midheaven in the impetuous sign of Aries, testimonies of a highly motivated electorate. However, the Moon is peregrine and void-of-course, testimonies that indicate that a sizable portion of Ohio voters are still uncommitted to one of the major candidates.

Leo rises in the horary figure – therefore the Sun rules the Obama campaign. The Sun is in Scorpio, strongly placed in the 4th House making an applying sextile to Pluto, a testimony that the Obama campaign has a very strong ground game in the Buckeye State. However the Sun is peregrine, combust, and besieged between Saturn and Mars in the horoscope, devastating testimonies for the Favorite that augurs serious trouble for the President.

Aquarius is on the descendant of the horoscope, therefore Saturn rules the 7th House of the Romney campaign. Saturn is also strongly placed in the 4th House and trine Pluto, testimonies that Romney’s ground campaign is determined to win the Buckeye State and is  allocating tremendous resources to remain competitive with the Presidents superior ground campaign. However Saturn is also is lacking composite dignity – peregrine, and makes no aspect to the the ruler of the 10th House,  indicating that Romney still has an uphill fight in a state that is key to his victory 9 days from now.

Conclusion: Still little clarity on who is winning the Ohio presidential race. However the horary testimonies argue that the President  voter base is depressed and Romney’s voter base is stronger then the polls suggest. Case in point is Hamilton County, which envelops Cincinnati and was for decades a Republican stronghold until President Obama won it, just barely, in 2008. Most political pundit agree that Romney isn’t likely to win Ohio without also winning Hamilton County.

So what do the numbers here show?

Early and absentee voting here among those classified as Democrats is up 7% over 2008, to 17,454 votes as of Friday. At the same time, it’s up 50% among those classified as Republicans, to 21,182 votes.

2012 Presidential Election Electoral College Map Projection for October 26th, 2012

If the election were held today, Mitt Romney 301 would win  electoral votes while Barack Obama would win in states worth 237 electoral votes, according the forecasting results using political “contest” horary of the 11 key swing states over the past 5 days.  The 11 key swing states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

11 Key Swing State projections from political “snapshot” horary results based on the latest non partisan polling data:

  1. Colorado: 50-48 Romney — a surprise for many still expecting Obama to carry CO
  2. Florida: 50-49 Romney–closer then expected.
  3. Iowa: 51-48 Romney — many don’t expect this
  4. Michigan: 50-47 Obama — closer then expected
  5. Nevada: 50-48 Romney — this will surprise many
  6. New Hampshire: 51-48 Romney — a bellwether of the popular vote
  7. North Carolina: 52 – 47 Romney — not as close as expected
  8. Ohio: 50-49  Romney — the surprise of the night, late momentum improved ground game win the Buckeye state for Romney
  9. Pennsylvania: 51-48 Obama — much closer then expected
  10. Virginia: 51 -48 Romney — very close
  11. Wisconsin: 51-49 Romney — a real squeaker and surprise

2012 Presidential Election Electoral College Map Projection for October 20th, 2012

Revised ( 18 of 21)  Electoral Map Projection of the 2012 presidential election, based on mundane political contest horary: “Obama vs. GOP Nominee: Who will win X – battleground state?” With 270 electoral votes needed to win, the campaign will be fought in the battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — a total of 151 electoral votes up for grabs. Based on the latest forecast, the presumptive GOP Nominee Mitt Romney has pulled ahead of the President by an additional 13 electoral votes with the state of Virginia going from Blue to Red.

“Old Dominion” Tied: As of October 19th, according to Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling data, Virginia has moved from lean Obama to lean Romney in the No Toss Up Map.  RCP has the battleground state of Virginia tied with the President and his GOP opponent each receiving 48% support.  The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters, taken two nights after the second presidential debate, shows Romney with 50% support to President Obama’s 47%, with 2% still undecided.

Using the Blackbox Chart Rating Module with the Presidential Election Horoscope (Nov. 6th, 2012 at 12:01 am EST, in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire – the town best known in connection with its longstanding middle-of-the-night vote in the U.S. presidential election) rated against the State Horoscopes of the 11 projected key electoral college swing states it appears that North. Carolina, Iowa, and Pennsylvania, will be hotly contested states with Virginia being “Ground Zero” battleground state on Election Day Uranus-Pluto Square alignment is making an exact hit to “Old Dominion’s” Sun.

Although most political pundits predict Obama will win Virginia, since the 2008 Election there have been significant Republican victories in that state every year since President Obama has been in office; the winning of the governor’s office, winning control of the state Senate, and the winning three congressional seats. Virginia played a minor role in the GOP primary, Romney has committed its full attention and resources to the state when it began shifting campaign into general election mode in late September.

The October 20th results from the Rasmussen 11 key swing states won by President Obama in 2008 and considered be competitive in 2012 that collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes which include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin shows that for first time Romney has hit the 50% mark in the combined swing states with Obama earning 46% of the vote with 3% still undecided.

The Swing State Multi blackbox graph projects the total astrological activity (the last row) of the 11 key swing states from October 1st through November 7th 2012. The graph illustrates that the swing states of Nevada, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin, are fairly stressed (red), with Virginia most directly impacted on the peak activity date on October 20th 2012. Therefore it seems that we have reached the critical tipping point in the Presidential contest, with Virginia being the bellwether state that will likely influence the swing state voting trend in the closing days of the race and augur the Electoral College outcome in the 2012 election.

So the question is which candidate will win the critical battleground state of Virginia in the general election, “Election 2012 – Virginia: Romney (51%) vs. Obama (46%)?” Question asked by astrologer upon reading the CNN email alert on October 20th, 2012 at 12:30 pm EDT, New York, N.Y. According to Intrade, the world’s largest prediction market, Romney has a 55% chance of winning, with Obama at a 44% probability of winning the state of Virginia. Therefore Romney is the Favorite in the race and Obama the underdog.


1st House – “the favorite”: The Romney Campaign
7th House – “the underdog”: The Obama Campaign
10th House – “the prize”: The Virginia Electoral College Votes
The Moon – “the electorate”: The Virginia Voters

In the horoscope, we have no considerations before judgment, therefore  we can render judgment on this horary figure to determine the winner in this political contest. The 1st House of the Romney Campaign is ruled by Saturn. Saturn is peregrine but is strongly placed in the 10th House that rules the prize: the Virginia Electoral College, and is sextile Pluto which resides in the first house. The Moon which rules the Virginia electorate resides in the 1st House of the Romney Campaign and applies to Venus, ruler of the 10th House. These testimonies indicate that the foundation of Romney’s Virginia campaign is sound and  gaining strength, with a solid GOP voter base that will likely neutralize the gains the President made in the state during his spectacular 2008 campaign.

Cancer is on the 7th House Cusp. Since the Moon rules the electorate, we need to move to the next sign Leo, therefore the Sun rules the Obama campaign. The Sun is also strongly placed in the 10th house indicating that the President will runing  an extremely competitive race and will continue to do so into the final days of the campaign. However the Sun is in the sign of his Fall and Moon makes an applying square to the Sun,  problematic testimonies for the President indicating that the his is losing his credibility gap among voters among bread and butter issues and the economy (Moon in Capricorn).

Conclusion: Although the President will continue that have the edge in Virginia based on the horary testimonies, Romney will have the time, resources, and momentum going forward to erase it. However the ruler of the Ascendant is on the sign boundary, a testimony that indicates that the path towards victory in Virginia race will not be clear with a number of unforeseen obstacles after the polls close on Election Day.

Winner: Mitt Romney

2nd Presidential Debate Verdict: Not A Game Changer For Obama

Although President Obama and Governor Romney scored points with each other in last night’s presidential debate, it did nothing to reshape the race. Although  Democratic voters  may find reason to celebrate based on the results of the CNN  poll showing split decision on debate, with Obama  (46%) vs. Romney (39%), the poll (along with the CBS News poll with a 37%-30% margin, that also indicated that Obama won the showdown) was released during a Void-Of-Course Moon, indicating the results of the survey will have NO IMPACT on changing the dynamics of the race.

Conclusion: Obama may have lifted Democratic morale but did not do enough to arrest the crisis and thwart Romney’s growing momentum.

CNN Debate Poll Released: August 16th, 2012 at 11:46 pm EDT, Hempstead New York.