Battleground State Projections Record – 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election

Based on Axiom’s Battleground Counties:

as of November 7, 2016, 10:10pm PT:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
(Electoral College winner)
PredictIt (Electoral College winner) Axiom Strategies Battleground States
[as of Nov. 3, 2016, Statewide Results]
UPI/CVoter State Polls
[as of Nov. 7, 2016]
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Colorado Clinton 77.6%  Clinton 81% Clinton 42% Clinton 49.6% Clinton 50%
Florida Clinton 54.8%  Clinton 70% Trump 48%  Trump 47.4%  Trump 53%
Iowa** Trump 69.3%  Trump 80% n/a  Trump 47.6%  Trump 53%
Michigan** Clinton 78.7%  Clinton 77% n/a  Clinton 48.9%  Trump 50%
Minnesota** Clinton 86.0%  Clinton 90% n/a  Clinton 49.5%  Trump 50%
Nevada Clinton 57.6%  Clinton 85% Trump 46%  Clinton 49.3%  Trump 52%
North Carolina Clinton 54.8%  Clinton 53% Trump 48%  Trump 47.5%  Trump 55%
Ohio Trump 64.2% Trump 69% Trump 45%  Trump 48.3%  Trump 53%
Pennsylvania Clinton 776.9%  Clinton 86% Clinton 46%  Clinton 47.8%  Trump 52%
Virginia Clinton 85.4%  Clinton 89% Clinton 46% Clinton 49.5% Clinton 50%
Wisconsin Clinton 83.0%  Clinton 87% Clinton 49% Clinton 51.3% Clinton 51%

as of November 7, 2016, 2:10pm PT:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
(Electoral College winner)
PredictIt (Electoral College winner) Axiom Strategies Battleground States
[as of Nov. 3, 2016, Statewide Results]
UPI/CVoter State Polls
[as of Nov. 7, 2016]
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Colorado Clinton 75.6%  Clinton 80% Clinton 42% Clinton 49.6% Clinton 50%
Florida Clinton 53.9%  Clinton 68% Trump 48%  Trump 47.4%  Trump 53%
Iowa** Trump 70.6%  Trump 80% n/a  Trump 47.6%  Trump 53%
Michigan** Clinton 76.7%  Clinton 81% n/a  Clinton 48.9%  Trump 50%
Minnesota** Clinton 85.0%  Clinton 90% n/a  Clinton 49.5%  Trump 50%
Nevada Clinton 56.0%  Clinton 84% Trump 46%  Clinton 49.3%  Trump 52%
North Carolina Clinton 53.6%  Clinton 58% Trump 48%  Trump 47.5%  Trump 55%
Ohio Trump 63.9% Trump 69% Trump 45%  Trump 48.3%  Trump 53%
Pennsylvania Clinton 75.3%  Clinton 84% Clinton 46%  Clinton 47.8%  Trump 52%
Virginia Clinton 84.9%  Clinton 87% Clinton 46% Clinton 49.5% Clinton 50%
Wisconsin Clinton 83.1%  Clinton 88% Clinton 49% Clinton 51.3% Clinton 51%

as of November 6, 2016:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
(Electoral College winner)
PredictIt (Electoral College winner) Axiom Strategies Battleground States
[as of Nov. 3, 2016, Statewide Results]
UPI/CVoter State Polls
[as of Oct. 31, 2016]
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Colorado Clinton 72.3%  Clinton 83% Clinton 42% Clinton 49.7% Clinton 50%
Florida Trump 52.2%  Clinton 69% Trump 48%  Clinton 48.2%  Trump 53%
Iowa** Trump 72.8%  Trump 80% n/a  Trump 48.3%  Trump 53%
Michigan** Clinton 78.2%  Clinton 79% n/a  Clinton 50.8%  Trump 50%
Minnesota** Clinton 80.8%  Clinton 87% n/a  Trump 48.3%  Trump 50%
Nevada Trump 50.5%  Clinton 84% Trump 46%  Clinton 47.8%  Trump 52%
North Carolina Trump 51.4%  Clinton 58% Trump 48%  Clinton 48.2%  Trump 55%
Ohio Trump 65.4% Trump 65% Trump 45%  Clinton 49.5%  Trump 53%
Pennsylvania Clinton 74.9%  Clinton 79% Clinton 46%  Clinton 50.3%  Trump 52%
Virginia Clinton 80.9%  Clinton 86% Clinton 46% Clinton 49.5% Clinton 50%
Wisconsin Clinton 81.0%  Clinton 86% Clinton 49% Clinton 50.5% Clinton 51%

as of November 5, 2016:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
(Electoral College winner)
PredictIt (Electoral College winner) Axiom Strategies Battleground States
[as of Oct. 30, 2016, Statewide Results]
UPI/CVoter State Polls
[as of Oct. 31, 2016]
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Colorado Clinton 72.5%  Clinton 78% Clinton 45% Clinton 49.7% Clinton 50%
Florida Trump 52.3%  Clinton 65% Trump 48%  Clinton 48.2%  Trump 53%
Iowa** Trump 72.7%  Trump 81% n/a  Trump 48.3%  Trump 53%
Minnesota** Clinton 81.1%  Clinton 87% n/a  Trump 48.3%  Trump 50%
Nevada Trump 50.5%  Clinton 77% Trump 48%  Clinton 47.8%  Trump 52%
North Carolina Trump 51.6%  Clinton 60% Trump 47%  Clinton 48.2%  Trump 55%
Ohio Trump 68.6% Trump 70% Trump 48%  Clinton 49.5%  Trump 53%
Pennsylvania Clinton 74.7%  Clinton 80% Clinton 45%  Clinton 50.3%  Trump 52%
Virginia Clinton 81.8%  Clinton 84% Clinton 47% Clinton 49.5% Clinton 50%
Wisconsin Clinton 77.8%  Clinton 86% Clinton 46% Clinton 50.5% Clinton 51%

as of November 4, 2016:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
(Electoral College winner)
PredictIt (Electoral College winner) Axiom Strategies Battleground States
[as of Oct. 30, 2016, Statewide Results]
UPI/CVoter State Polls
[as of Oct. 31, 2016]
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Colorado Clinton 73.9%  Clinton 79% Clinton 45% Clinton 49.7% Clinton 50%
Florida Trump 52.9%  Clinton 61% Trump 48%  Clinton 48.2%  Trump 53%
Iowa** Trump 71.2%  Trump 74% n/a  Trump 48.3%  Trump 53%
Minnesota** Clinton 81.7%  Clinton 86% n/a  Trump 48.3%  Trump 50%
Nevada Clinton 50.6%  Clinton 74% Trump 48%  Clinton 47.8%  Trump 52%
North Carolina Trump 52.1%  Clinton 60% Trump 47%  Clinton 48.2%  Trump 55%
Ohio Trump 69.4% Trump 72% Trump 48%  Clinton 49.5%  Trump 53%
Pennsylvania Clinton 73.5%  Clinton 75% Clinton 45%  Clinton 50.3%  Trump 52%
Virginia Clinton 81.2%  Clinton 85% Clinton 47% Clinton 49.5% Clinton 50%
Wisconsin Clinton 78.1%  Clinton 82% Clinton 46% Clinton 50.5% Clinton 51%

as of November 3, 2016:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
(Electoral College winner)
PredictIt (Electoral College winner) Axiom Strategies Battleground Counties
[as of Oct. 23, 2016]
UPI/CVoter State Polls
[as of Oct. 31, 2016]
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Colorado Clinton 74.8%  Clinton 73% Clinton 44% Clinton 49.7% Clinton 50%
Florida Clinton 50.2%  Trump 51% Clinton 46%  Clinton 48.2%  Trump 53%
Iowa** Trump 71.7%  Trump 74% n/a  Trump 48.3%  Trump 53%
Iowa** Trump 71.7%  Trump 74% n/a  Trump 48.3%  Trump 53%
Nevada Clinton 51.5%  Clinton 66% Trump 49%  Clinton 47.8%  Trump 52%
North Carolina Trump 50.2%  Clinton 57% Trump 46%  Clinton 48.2%  Trump 55%
Ohio Trump 66.4% Trump 72% Trump 47%,
Trump 45%
 Clinton 49.5%  Trump 53%
Pennsylvania Clinton 76.6%  Clinton 74% Trump 52%,
Clinton 46%
 Clinton 50.3%  Trump 52%
Virginia Clinton 80.4%  Clinton 82% Clinton 48% Clinton 49.5% Clinton 50%

as of October 28, 2016:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
(Electoral College winner)
PredictIt (Electoral College winner) Axiom Strategies Battleground Counties
[as of Oct. 23, 2016]
UPI/CVoter State Polls
[as of Oct. 24, 2016]
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Colorado Clinton 84.6%  Clinton 82% Clinton 44% Clinton 49.94% Clinton 52%
Florida Clinton 65.8%  Clinton 63% Clinton 46%  Clinton 48.84%  Trump 53%
Iowa** Clinton 50.9%  Trump 62% n/a  Clinton 48.62%  Trump 53%
Nevada Clinton 64.6%  Clinton 69% Trump 49%  Clinton 48.31%  Trump 52%
North Carolina Clinton 64.4%  Clinton 66% Trump 46%  Clinton 48.82%  Trump 55%
Ohio Trump 50.1% Trump 58% Trump 47%,
Trump 45%
 Clinton 49.90%  Trump 53%
Pennsylvania Clinton 85.9%  Clinton 78% Trump 52%,
Clinton 46%
 Clinton 49.42%  Trump 52%
Virginia Clinton 92.1%  Clinton 88% Clinton 48% Clinton 49.26% Clinton 50%

as of October 12, 2016:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
(Electoral College winner)
PredictIt (Electoral College winner) Axiom Strategies  – Battleground Counties
[as of Sept. 8, 2016]
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
(for Axiom’s Battleground Counties)
Colorado Clinton 86.5%  Clinton 89% Clinton 41% Trump 51%
Florida Clinton 74.7%  Clinton 84%  Trump 44%  Trump 54%
Nevada Clinton 75.9%  Clinton 85%  Trump 51%  Trump 50%
North Carolina Clinton 70.8%  Clinton 83%  Trump 47%  Trump 60%
Ohio Clinton 65.7% Clinton 77%  Trump 43%  Trump 53%
Pennsylvania Clinton 88.8%  Clinton 88%  Trump 52%  Trump 53%
Virginia Clinton 92.6%  Clinton 92% Clinton 44% Clinton 51%

as of September 19, 2016:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
(Electoral College winner)
PredictIt (Electoral College winner) Axiom Strategies  – Battleground Counties
[as of Sept. 8, 2016]
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
(for Axiom’s Battleground Counties)
Colorado Clinton 64.9%  Clinton 72% Clinton 41% Trump 51%
Florida Trump 52.8%  Clinton 55%  Trump 44%  Trump 53%
Nevada Trump 50.1%  Clinton 56%  Trump 51%  Trump 53%
North Carolina Trump 54.4%  Clinton 52%  Trump 47%  Trump 60%
Ohio Trump 57.7% Trump 53%  Trump 43%  Trump 51%
Pennsylvania Clinton 70.1%  Clinton 73%  Trump 52%  Trump 53%
Virginia Clinton 75.5%  Clinton 75% Clinton 44% Clinton 51%

as of August 4, 2016:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
(Electoral College winner)
PredictIt (Electoral College winner) Axiom Strategies  – Battleground Counties
[as of July 15, 2016]
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
(for Axiom’s Battleground Counties)
Colorado Clinton 82.0%  Clinton 82%  Trump 40% Trump 51%
Florida Clinton 70.8%  Clinton 69%  Trump 43%  Trump 53%
Nevada Clinton 71.7%  Clinton 73%  Trump 48%  Trump 53%
North Carolina Clinton 63.8%  Clinton 56%  Trump 46%  Trump 60%
Ohio Clinton 68.3%  Clinton 68%  Trump 42%  Trump 50%
Pennsylvania Clinton 79.9%  Clinton 77%  Trump 55%  Trump 53%
Virginia Clinton 79.6%  Clinton 83%  Clinton 44% Trump 50%

as of July 21, 2016:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
(Electoral College winner)
PredictIt (Electoral College winner) Axiom Strategies  – Battleground Counties
[as of July 15, 2016]
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
(for Axiom’s Battleground Counties)
Colorado Clinton 66.7%  Clinton 66%  Trump 40%  Clinton 54%
Florida Clinton 51.9%  Clinton 62%  Trump 43%  Trump 53%
Nevada Clinton 54.3%  Clinton 69%  Trump 48%  Trump 54%
North Carolina Trump 54.7%  Clinton 52%  Trump 46%  Trump 60%
Ohio Clinton 52.1%  Clinton 57%  Trump 42%  Trump 50%
Pennsylvania Clinton 60.8%  Clinton 66%  Trump 55%  Trump 55%
Virginia Clinton 62.3%  Clinton 75%  Clinton 44%  Clinton 51%

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