Projections Accuracy Track Record for 2016 Presidential Election Primaries

Track Record for 99 Primary Elections as of June 15, 2016:

FiveThirtyEight	PredictIt	Political Prediction Market (CNN)	William Stickevers
89% correct	88% correct	88% correct	87% correct
57 projections	97 projections	42 projections	98 projections
51 correct	85 correct	37 correct	85 correct
6 incorrect	11 incorrect	4 incorrect	12 incorrect
42 no projection given	2 no projection given	57 no projection given	1 no projection given

Below are current projections for upcoming Republican and Democratic primaries and caucuses, as well as the track record for past elections.  

Included probabilities:

• FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver

• PredictIt.com

• Political Prediction Market (CNN.com)

• William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*

*AstroProbability: a composite set of mundane astrology forecasting methods.

February 1	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Iowa	Clinton 67%   Trump 46%	Clinton 58%   Trump 60%	Clinton 55%  Trump

February 9	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
New Hampshire	Sanders 99%   Trump 69%	Sanders 90%   Trump 90%	Sanders 80%   Trump 60%

February 20	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Nevada (D)	n/a	Clinton 57%	Clinton 50%
South Carolina (R)	Trump 76%	Trump 93%	Trump

February 23	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Nevada (R)	n/a	Trump 74%	Trump

February 27	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
South Carolina (D)	Clinton 99%	n/a	Clinton 60%

March 1	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Alabama	Clinton 99%   Trump 94%	Clinton 86%   Trump 97%	Clinton 80%   Trump 85%
Alaska (R)	n/a	Trump 90%	Trump 90%
Arkansas	Clinton 97%   Trump 52%	Clinton 86%   Trump 83%	Clinton 80%   Trump 50%
Colorado (D)	n/a	Sanders 75%	Sanders 75%
Georgia	Clinton 99%   Trump 88%	Clinton 99% n/a	Clinton 90%   Trump 80%
Massachusetts	Clinton 94%   Trump 99%	Sanders 72%  Trump 98%	Dem n/a  Trump 98%
Minnesota	n/a	Sanders 70%   Trump 70%	Sanders 80%   Trump 50%
Oklahoma	Clinton 51%   Trump 68%	Clinton 80%   Trump 88%	Clinton 80%   Trump 55%
Tennessee	Clinton 99%   Trump 92%	Clinton 80%   Trump 95%	Clinton 85%   Trump 80%
Texas	Clinton 99%   Cruz 87%	Clinton 81%   Cruz 84%	Clinton 70%   Cruz 85%
Vermont	Sanders 99% Rep n/a	Sanders 98%   Trump 95%	Sanders 90%   Trump 90%
Virginia	Clinton 99%   Trump 69%	Clinton 75%   Trump 91%	Clinton 70%   Trump 50%

March 5	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Kansas	(D) n/a   Trump 51%	Sanders 91%   Cruz 99%	Sanders 99%   Cruz 60%
Kentucky (R)	n/a	Cruz 63%	Trump 53%
Louisiana	Clinton 99%   Trump 96%	Clinton 99%   Trump 85%	Clinton 99%   Trump 90%
Maine (R)	n/a	Cruz 87%	Trump 53%
Nebraska (D)	n/a	Sanders 93%	Sanders 90%

March 6	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Maine (D)	n/a	Sanders 95%	Sanders 90%
Puerto Rico (R)	n/a	Rubio 66%	Rubio 60%

As of March 7, 2016:

March 8	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	Political Prediction Market (CNN)	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Hawaii (R)	n/a	Rubio 45%	n/a	Rubio 45%
Idaho (R)	n/a	Cruz 60%	Cruz 71%	Cruz 55%
Michigan	Clinton 99%   Trump 90%	Clinton 93%   Trump 91%	Clinton 92%   Trump 86%	Clinton 90%   Trump 85%
Mississippi	Clinton 99% (R) n/a	Clinton 99%   Trump 83%	Clinton 99%   Trump 70%	Clinton 95%   Trump 70%

as of March 14, 2016:

March 15	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	Political Prediction Market (CNN)	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Florida	Clinton 99%  Trump 97%	Clinton 94%  Trump 93%	Clinton 98%  Trump 96%	Clinton 90%  Trump 90%
Illinois	Clinton 88%  Trump 62%	Clinton 53%  Trump 72%	Clinton 55%  Trump 87%	Clinton 52%  Trump 80%
Missouri	Clinton 54% Rep: n/a	Sanders 68%  Trump 54%	Sanders 56%  Trump 80%	Sanders 50%  Trump 52%
North Carolina	Clinton 99%  Trump 88%	Clinton 92%  Trump 87%	Clinton 94%  Trump 85%	Clinton 95%  Trump 60%
Ohio	Clinton 95%  Kasich 86%	Clinton 60%  Kasich 72%	Clinton 52%  Kasich 84%	Clinton 50%  Kasich 52%

as of March 20, 2016:

March 22	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	Political Prediction Market (CNN)	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Arizona	Dem n/a  Trump 84%	Clinton 90%  Trump 90%	Clinton 92%  Trump 84%	Clinton 90%  Trump 85%
Idaho (D)	n/a	Sanders 81%	n/a	Sanders 80%
Utah	n/a	Sanders 75%  Cruz 96%	Sanders 77%  Cruz 96%	Sanders 80%  Cruz 90%

as of March 25, 2016:

March 26	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	Political Prediction Market (CNN)	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Alaska (D)	n/a	Sanders 93%	n/a	Sanders 70%
Hawaii (D)	n/a	Sanders 73%	n/a	Sanders 60%
Washington (D)	n/a	Sanders 97%	n/a	Sanders 85%

as of April 4, 2016:

April 5	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	Political Prediction Market (CNN)	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Wisconsin	Sanders 73%  Cruz 91%	Sanders 88%  Cruz 82%	Sanders 98%  Cruz 96%	Sanders 50%  Trump 50%

as of April 7, 2016:

April 9	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	Political Prediction Market (CNN)	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Wyoming (D)	n/a	Sanders 98%	n/a	Sanders 90%

as of April 10, 2016:

April 19	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	Political Prediction Market (CNN)	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
New York	Clinton 97%  Trump 99%	Clinton 86%  Trump 96%	Clinton 77%  Trump 99%	Clinton 80%  Trump 90%

as of April 25, 2016:

April 26	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	Political Prediction Market (CNN)	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Connecticut	Clinton 76%  Trump 99%	Clinton 81%  Trump 97%	Clinton 89%  Trump 99%	Clinton 90%  Trump 90%
Delaware	n/a	Clinton 95%  Trump 97%	Clinton 92%  Trump 99%	Clinton 90%  Trump 90%
Maryland	Clinton 97%  Trump 99%	Clinton 97%  Trump 94%	Clinton 98%  Trump 99%	Clinton 90%  Trump 90%
Pennsylvania	Clinton 99%  Trump 99%	Clinton 96%  Trump 96%	Clinton 90%  Trump 97%	Clinton 70%  Trump 80%
Rhode Island	n/a	Sander 55%  Trump 97%	Clinton 85%  Trump 98%	Clinton 70%  Trump 90%

as of May 2, 2016:

May 3	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	Political Prediction Market (CNN)	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (4/27/16)
Indiana	Clinton 91%   Trump 83%	Clinton 76%   Trump 95%	Clinton 72%   Trump 92%	Clinton 80%   Trump 85%

as of May 9, 2016:

May 10	FiveThirtyEight	PredictIt	Political Prediction Market (CNN)	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (5/5/16)
Nebraska (R)	n/a	Trump 96%	Cruz 94%	Trump 80%
West Virginia	Sanders 63% Rep n/a	Sanders 87%  Trump 99%	Sanders 72% Trump 99%	Sanders 90%  Trump 90%

as of May 16, 2016:

May 17	FiveThirtyEight	PredictIt	Political Prediction Market (CNN)	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Kentucky (D)	n/a	Clinton 61%	n/a	Clinton 50%
Oregon	n/a	Sanders 82%  Trump 99%	Sanders 80% Trump 86%	Sanders 80%  Trump 80%

May 24	FiveThirtyEight	PredictIt	Political Prediction Market (CNN)	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (4/29/16)
Washington (R)	n/a	Trump 99%	Trump 70%	Trump 85%

as of June 6, 2016:

June 7	FiveThirtyEight	PredictIt	Political Prediction Market (CNN)	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
California	Clinton 90%  Trump 97%	Clinton 73%  Trump 99%	Clinton 61% Trump 92%	Clinton 70%  Trump 90%
Montana	n/a	Sanders 97%  Trump 99%	Sanders 80% Cruz 93%	Sanders 55%  Trump 80%
New Jersey	Clinton 99% Rep n/a	Clinton 97%  Trump 99%	Clinton 98% Trump 99%	Clinton 90%  Trump 95%
New Mexico	n/a	Clinton 86%  Trump 99%	Clinton 78% Trump 77%	Clinton 80%  Trump 85%
North Dakota (D)	n/a	Sanders 96%	n/a	Sanders 55%
South Dakota	n/a	Sanders 86%  Trump 99%	Sanders 82% Cruz 93%	Sanders 50%  Trump 80%

June 14	FiveThirtyEight	PredictIt	Political Prediction Market (CNN)	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (4/29/16)
District of Columbia (D)	n/a	Clinton 97%	n/a	Clinton 95%

July 18-21	FiveThirtyEight	PredictIt	Political Prediction Market (CNN)	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (4/29/16)
Republican National Convention		Trump 92%	n/a	Trump 85%

July 25-28	FiveThirtyEight	PredictIt	Political Prediction Market (CNN)	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (4/29/16)
Democratic National Convention		Clinton 92%	Clinton 97%	Clinton 95%

as of July 21, 2016:

November 8	FiveThirtyEight	PredictIt	Political Prediction Market (CNN)	William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
U.S. Presidential Election	Clinton 60.2%	Clinton 66%	Clinton 68%

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