Projections Accuracy Track Record for 2016 Presidential Election Primaries

Track Record for 99 Primary Elections as of June 15, 2016:

FiveThirtyEight PredictIt Political Prediction Market (CNN) William Stickevers
89% correct 88% correct 88% correct 87% correct
57 projections 97 projections 42 projections 98 projections
51 correct  85 correct  37 correct  85 correct 
6 incorrect red-x 11 incorrect red-x 4 incorrect red-x 12 incorrect red-x
42 no projection given 2 no projection given 57 no projection given 1 no projection given

Below are current projections for upcoming Republican and Democratic primaries and caucuses, as well as the track record for past elections.  red-x

Included probabilities:

  • FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver

  • PredictIt.com

  • Political Prediction Market (CNN.com)

  • William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*

*AstroProbability: a composite set of mundane astrology forecasting methods.

February 1

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver PredictIt William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Iowa   Clinton 67%
red-x  Trump 46%
  Clinton 58%
red-x  Trump 60%
  Clinton 55%
red-x  
Trump

February 9

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver PredictIt William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
New Hampshire   Sanders 99%
  Trump 69%
  Sanders 90%
  Trump 90%
  Sanders 80%
  
Trump 60%

February 20

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver PredictIt William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Nevada (D) n/a   Clinton 57%   Clinton 50%
South Carolina (R)   Trump 76%   Trump 93%   Trump

February 23

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver PredictIt William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Nevada (R) n/a   Trump 74%   Trump

February 27

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver PredictIt William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
South Carolina (D)   Clinton 99%  n/a   Clinton 60%

March 1

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver PredictIt William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Alabama   Clinton 99%
  Trump 94%
  Clinton 86%
  Trump 97%
  Clinton 80%
  Trump 85%
Alaska (R)  n/a red-x  Trump 90% red-x  Trump 90%
Arkansas   Clinton 97%
  Trump 52%
  Clinton 86%
  Trump 83%
  Clinton 80%
  Trump 50%
Colorado (D) n/a   Sanders 75%   Sanders 75%
Georgia   Clinton 99%
  Trump 88%
  Clinton 99%
n/a
  Clinton 90%
  Trump 80%
Massachusetts   Clinton 94%
  Trump 99%
red-x  Sanders 72%
 Trump 98%
Dem n/a
 Trump 98%
Minnesota n/a   Sanders 70%
red-x  Trump 70%
  Sanders 80%
red-x  Trump 50%
Oklahoma red-x  Clinton 51%
red-x  Trump 68%
red-x  Clinton 80%
red-x  Trump 88%
red-x  Clinton 80%
red-x  Trump 55%
Tennessee   Clinton 99%
  Trump 92%
  Clinton 80%
  Trump 95%
  Clinton 85%
  Trump 80%
Texas   Clinton 99%
  Cruz 87%
  Clinton 81%
  Cruz 84%
  Clinton 70%
  Cruz 85%
Vermont   Sanders 99%
Rep n/a
  Sanders 98%
  Trump 95%
  Sanders 90%
  Trump 90%
Virginia   Clinton 99%
  Trump 69%
  Clinton 75%
  Trump 91%
  Clinton 70%
  Trump 50%

March 5

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver PredictIt William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Kansas (D) n/a
red-x  Trump 51%
  Sanders 91%
  Cruz 99%
  Sanders 99%
  Cruz 60%
Kentucky (R) n/a red-x   Cruz 63%   Trump 53%
Louisiana   Clinton 99%
  Trump 96%
  Clinton 99%
  Trump 85%
  Clinton 99%
  Trump 90%
Maine (R) n/a   Cruz 87% red-x  Trump 53%
Nebraska (D) n/a   Sanders 93%   Sanders 90%

March 6

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver PredictIt William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Maine (D) n/a   Sanders 95%   Sanders 90%
Puerto Rico (R) n/a   Rubio 66%   Rubio 60%

As of March 7, 2016:

March 8

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver PredictIt Political Prediction Market (CNN) William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Hawaii (R) n/a red-x   Rubio 45% n/a red-x   Rubio 45%
Idaho (R) n/a   Cruz 60%   Cruz 71%   Cruz 55%
Michigan red-x   Clinton 99%
  Trump 90%
red-x   Clinton 93%
  Trump 91%
red-x   Clinton 92%
  Trump 86%
red-x   Clinton 90%
  Trump 85%
Mississippi   Clinton 99%
(R) n/a
  Clinton 99%
  Trump 83%
  Clinton 99%
  Trump 70%
  Clinton 95%
  Trump 70%

as of March 14, 2016:

March 15

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver PredictIt Political Prediction Market (CNN) William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Florida  Clinton 99%
 Trump 97%
 Clinton 94%
 Trump 93%
 Clinton 98%
 Trump 96%
 Clinton 90%
 Trump 90%
Illinois  Clinton 88%
 Trump 62%
 Clinton 53%
 Trump 72%
 Clinton 55%
 Trump 87%
 Clinton 52%
 Trump 80%
Missouri  Clinton 54%
Rep: n/a
red-x Sanders 68%
 Trump 54%
red-x Sanders 56%
 Trump 80%
red-x Sanders 50%
 Trump 52%
North Carolina  Clinton 99%
 Trump 88%
 Clinton 92%
 Trump 87%
 Clinton 94%
 Trump 85%
 Clinton 95%
 Trump 60%
Ohio  Clinton 95%
 Kasich 86%
 Clinton 60%
 Kasich 72%
 Clinton 52%
 Kasich 84%
 Clinton 50%
 Kasich 52%

as of March 20, 2016:

March 22

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver PredictIt Political Prediction Market (CNN) William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Arizona Dem n/a
 Trump 84%
 Clinton 90%
 Trump 90%
 Clinton 92%
 Trump 84%
 Clinton 90%
 Trump 85%
Idaho (D) n/a  Sanders 81% n/a  Sanders 80%
Utah n/a  Sanders 75%
 Cruz 96%
 Sanders 77%
 Cruz 96%
 Sanders 80%
 Cruz 90%

as of March 25, 2016:

March 26

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver PredictIt Political Prediction Market (CNN) William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Alaska (D) n/a  Sanders 93% n/a  Sanders 70%
Hawaii (D) n/a  Sanders 73% n/a  Sanders 60%
Washington (D) n/a  Sanders 97% n/a  Sanders 85%

as of April 4, 2016:

April 5

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver PredictIt Political Prediction Market (CNN) William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Wisconsin  Sanders 73%
 Cruz 91%
 Sanders 88%
 Cruz 82%
 Sanders 98%
 Cruz 96%
 Sanders 50%
red-x Trump 50%

as of April 7, 2016:

April 9

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver PredictIt Political Prediction Market (CNN) William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Wyoming (D)  n/a  Sanders 98%  n/a  Sanders 90%

as of April 10, 2016:

April 19

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver PredictIt Political Prediction Market (CNN) William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
New York  Clinton 97%
 Trump 99%
 Clinton 86%
 Trump 96%
 Clinton 77%
 Trump 99%
 Clinton 80%
 Trump 90%

as of April 25, 2016:

April 26

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver PredictIt Political Prediction Market (CNN) William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Connecticut  Clinton 76%
 Trump 99%
 Clinton 81%
 Trump 97%
 Clinton 89%
 Trump 99%
 Clinton 90%
 Trump 90%
Delaware n/a  Clinton 95%
 Trump 97%
 Clinton 92%
 Trump 99%
 Clinton 90%
 Trump 90%
Maryland  Clinton 97%
 Trump 99%
 Clinton 97%
 Trump 94%
 Clinton 98%
 Trump 99%
 Clinton 90%
 Trump 90%
Pennsylvania  Clinton 99%
 Trump 99%
 Clinton 96%
 Trump 96%
 Clinton 90%
 Trump 97%
 Clinton 70%
 Trump 80%
Rhode Island n/a  Sander 55%
 Trump 97%
red-x Clinton 85%
 Trump 98%
red-x Clinton 70%
 Trump 90%

as of May 2, 2016:

May 3

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt
Political Prediction Market (CNN)
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (4/27/16)
Indiana red-x  Clinton 91%
  Trump 83%
red-x  Clinton 76%
  Trump 95%
red-x  Clinton 72%
  Trump 92%
red-x  Clinton 80%
  Trump 85%

as of May 9, 2016:

May 10

FiveThirtyEight PredictIt Political Prediction Market (CNN) William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (5/5/16)
Nebraska (R)  n/a  Trump 96% Cruz 94%  Trump 80%
West Virginia  Sanders 63%
Rep n/a
 Sanders 87%
 Trump 99%
 Sanders 72%
Trump 99%
 Sanders 90%
 Trump 90%

as of May 16, 2016:

May 17

FiveThirtyEight PredictIt Political Prediction Market (CNN) William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
Kentucky (D)  n/a  Clinton 61%  n/a  Clinton 50%
Oregon  n/a  Sanders 82%
 Trump 99%
 Sanders 80%
Trump 86%
 Sanders 80%
 Trump 80%

May 24

FiveThirtyEight PredictIt Political Prediction Market (CNN) William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (4/29/16)
Washington (R)  n/a  Trump 99% Trump 70%  Trump 85%

as of June 6, 2016:

June 7

FiveThirtyEight PredictIt Political Prediction Market (CNN) William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* 
California  Clinton 90%
 Trump 97%
 Clinton 73%
 Trump 99%
 Clinton 61%
Trump 92%
 Clinton 70%
 Trump 90%
Montana  n/a  Sanders 97%
 Trump 99%
 Sanders 80%
Cruz 93%
 Sanders 55%
 Trump 80%
New Jersey  Clinton 99%
Rep n/a
 Clinton 97%
 Trump 99%
 Clinton 98%
Trump 99%
 Clinton 90%
 Trump 95%
New Mexico  n/a  Clinton 86%
 Trump 99%
 Clinton 78%
Trump 77%
 Clinton 80%
 Trump 85%
North Dakota (D)  n/a  Sanders 96%  n/a  Sanders 55%
South Dakota  n/a red-x Sanders 86%
 Trump 99%
red-x Sanders 82%
Cruz 93%
red-x Sanders 50%
 Trump 80%

June 14

FiveThirtyEight PredictIt Political Prediction Market (CNN) William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (4/29/16)
District of Columbia (D)  n/a  Clinton 97%  n/a  Clinton 95%

July 18-21

FiveThirtyEight PredictIt Political Prediction Market (CNN) William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (4/29/16)
Republican National Convention  Trump 92%  n/a Trump 85%

July 25-28

FiveThirtyEight PredictIt Political Prediction Market (CNN) William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (4/29/16)
Democratic National Convention  Clinton 92%  Clinton 97% Clinton 95%

as of July 21, 2016:

November 8

FiveThirtyEight PredictIt Political Prediction Market (CNN) William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
U.S. Presidential Election  Clinton 60.2%  Clinton 66%  Clinton 68%



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