Blue Wave Update: Senate Forecast

Let’s look at the Blue Wave in regards to the Senate Race and the Political Contest Horary Forecast.

The U.S. Senate has 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats (including two independents). There are 35 seats up in 2018 – including special elections in Minnesota and Mississippi – of which 26 are held by Democrats. That party will need to gain 2 seats to take control.

congress-seat-map_SENATE_wikipedia_2018-11-04

A consensus outlook for the 2018 Senate elections based on the current ratings of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, and Inside Elections forecast roughly 50 Senate Seats won by Republicans, 44 for Democrats, with 6 toss-up races.

The 6 Toss Up States are:

  • Arizona (Open Race, Republican Incumbent),
  • Florida (Incumbent: Nelson, Democratic),
  • Indiana (Incumbent: Donnelly, Democratic),
  • Missouri (Incumbent: McCaskill, Democratic),
  • Montana (Incumbent: Tester, Democratic),
  • Nevada (Incumbent: Heller, Republican).

Arizona

candidates-states_AZGOP candidate Martha McSally seems to have consolidated the Republican vote rather quickly after winning her primary election, but her Democratic rival Kyrsten Sinema opened a narrow lead over McSally for most of October. However, the comments from Sinema suggesting that Arizona was the “meth lab of democracy” and that she didn’t care whether a libertarian interviewer joined the Taliban certainly haven’t helped her prospects in this red-leaning state. Those statements hurt her in the polls resulting in undecided voters giving McSally a second look.

The Political Contest Horary indicators show that McSally has gained renewed momentum in the race and has caught up with Sinema in a virtual tie based on the most recent polls, as many undecideds are beginning to break Republican.candidates-states_AZ_pch

Florida

candidates-states_FLDemocratic Senator Bill Nelson holds an extremely narrow lead in state polls, but this race is very close. However, his GOP challenger Florida Governor Rick Scott is extremely well known, a high-profile governor who campaign as of late has recently gained the necessary momentum in giving Nelson his stiffest re-election challenge to date.

Oddsmakers have Nelson, the incumbent Senator, with a 70% chance of winning however the latest political contest horary snapshot shows that there is more play in this race over the next 2 days as undecideds begin to break 50-50 between both candidates.candidates-states_FL_pch

Indiana

candidates-states_INThis is another race where Democrats looked to be in a solid position over the summer, but where that position has deteriorated substantially.  Since the Brett Kavanaugh won the nomination whom incumbent Indiana Democrat Joe Donnelly voted against, still leads in the race, but has struggled since to keep some Republicans within his voter base without depressing Democratic voters. The latest set of polls show a tied race and Donnelly is below 50 percent in a state where undecideds strongly approve of Trump. This late-game scenario is not what an incumbent Democratic Senator running in a red state wants at this point in the election cycle.

Assuming that the latest political contest horary snapshot of the Indiana state race is accurate, Donnelly is in deep trouble.candidates-states_IN_pch

Missouri

candidates-states_MODemocratic Senator Clair McCaskill was on track to losing her re-election campaign back in 2012, but the GOP nominated Republican Rep. Todd Akin, who later claimed in an interview that a woman could not get pregnant as a result of “legitimate rape.”  This time, it’s clear based on the Political Contest Horary indicators that McCaskill’s luck has run out. For the state has swung dramatically toward Republicans with Trump winning the state in the 2016 general election by twenty points. Also, McCaskill has a solid Republican opponent in Attorney General Josh Hawley.

This race has lived up to its billing as one of the closest Senate races in the country. Neither Hawley nor McCaskill has had a lead of more than four points in a single poll for the entire year, placing this race well within the margin of error.  The undecided voters are strong Trump supporters, and the political contest hoary is indicating they are going to come out in strong number in this volatile election.candidates-states_MO_pch

Montana

candidates-states_MTThis race seems to have tightened and for incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester, being up two-to-four points in a state Donald Trump won by 20 points. This is not where a Democratic incumbent wants to find himself a month before an election. However, Tester is a good fit for the state, both culturally and to a lesser extent politically.

The political contest horary indicates he still maintains the edge in the current political environment going into Tuesday’s election. However, expect this to be a a much closer than anticipated race as he faces Republican state Auditor Matt Rosendale.candidates-states_MT_pch

Nevada

candidates-states_NVNevada’s Democratic trend has increased since 2009 due to the massive influx of progressive California transplants that moved to the state after the 2008 Financial Crisis. Therefore, Democrats are very optimistic about their chances in Nevada in 2018. Their candidate Jacky Rosen won an open seat in a swing district in the 2016 election.  Republican Senator Dean Heller narrowly won against a flawed Democratic opponent in 2012 and was trailing his opponent while taking in just 40 percent of the vote two months before Election Day. However, against all odds, Heller has opened a slight lead over the past week.

The political contest horary snapshot indicates this is going to be an extremely close race that will be transitioning from toss-up status to leaning Republican by election day.candidates-states_NV_pch

 

Senate Control

pch-senate-control

In general, the Political Contest Horary forecast for Senate Control indicates that the Republicans will beat their polls by at least 2.5 points in the most competitive Senate races and will have a much clearer edge then Hillary Clinton had before the 2016 election, when Trump had roughly a 3 in 10 chance to win the Electoral College.

Can there be a Blue Wave?

Based on my assessment the Senate Contest horary charts over the past 3 months Democrats will need a near-perfect midterm performance to take back the Senate. They will need to overthrow at least two Republicans in competitive states while protecting nearly all the Senate Democrats running for reelection in states that President Trump won in 2016.

The most problematic of these races for Democrats are Missouri, Indiana, Nevada, Arizona and Florida. There’s also a small chance of a loss for Democrats in Montana, West Virginia, New Jersey and the Minnesota special election.

Since Labor Day Weekend, we’ve been hearing about “the Blue Wave.” However, in recent days, we are hearing of a Republican Red Tide based on the on early voting where Republicans are leading and due to the boost of enthusiasm due to the Trump mid-term rallies and the strong economy and job numbers.

Trumpzilla

The other political influence that must be taken into account in the outcome of the mid-term elections is the “Trump Factor.” This is because there is no question that Trump is the most disruptive force in politics in the history of U.S. politics. Yes, you heard that correctly – in the history of U.S. politics.  For Trump has torn up every political playbook since day one and his political survival over the past two years in office, after failed attempted soft-coup by the Deep State, is a modern-day miracle, not to mention that his polling numbers are even where Presidents Obama and Clinton (Presidents that where re-election) were at this point. Trump’s most powerful weapon so far has not been the insult — which he certainly has been willing to use most effectively — but running on ideas and finding that a lot of Americans, outside California,  essentially agree with him on the big issues facing the nation.

Conclusion

So to conclude as of today, Nevada is the only seat that the Democrats could flip.  On the other hand, North Dakota and Missouri, along with Indiana and Montana could flip to the GOP. In a worst-case scenario, the GOP could end up with 52 Senate Seats, but more likely 55 based on scenario indicated by the Political Contest Horary forecast.

 


Complete Political Contest Horary forecast for the 2018 U.S. Midterm Elections:

2018 midterm election predictions astrology william stickevers

 

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