AstroProbability Projections As of January 13, 2017

New projections will be listed here, ranging from politics to economy to arts and entertainment.

WORLD EVENTS FOR 2017

  • US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 60%
  • North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 95%
  • No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 95%
  • Assad will remain President of Syria: 90%
  • Israel will not get in a major military congratulation or war (>100
  • Israeli deaths) with any Arab state: 95%
  • Syria’s civil war will not end this year: 85%
  • ISIS will control less territory than it does right now: 90%
  • ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq: 40%
  • No major conflagration resulting in a full-scale regional war in the Middle East: 80%
  • No major military conflagration in Eastern Europe between NATO and Russia: 90%
  • Ukraine will not break into all-out civil war: 80%
  • No major revolt (greater than or equal to Tiananmen Square) against Chinese Communist Party: 95%
  • No major war between China and Japan over the Sakkuo Islands: 95%
  • Major military exchange between the United States and China in the South China Sea: 30%
  • NASA EmDrive (a device that produces microwaves to generate thrust and requires no fuel to be consumed is launched into space) is launched in space and successfully tested: 20%
  • No major earthquake (>100 deaths) in US: 99%
  • No country currently in Euro or EU announces new plan to leave: 40%
  • France declares plan to leave EU: 30%
  • Italian banking crisis result in near economic collapse in Italy: 45%
  • Germany does not declare plan to leave EU: 99%
  • The UK triggers Article 50: 90%
  • Marine Le Pen is elected President of France: 52%
  • Angela Merkel is re-elected Chancellor of Germany: 45%
  • Theresa May remains PM of Britain: 90%

ECONOMICS

  • Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000: 75%
  • Oil will end the year higher than $50 a barrel: 50%
  • Bitcoin will match Gold in price this year: 45%
  • Dow Jones will fall > 20% this year: 70%
  • Dow Jones will fall >40% this year: 50%
  • Dow Jones will fall >50% this year: 30%
  • Gold to break out range and rise to $1,500 by the end of 2017: 60%

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION

  • Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017: 99%
  • No serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump: 90%
  • Construction on Mexican border wall begins: 90%
  • Trump administration initiates prosecution of the Clinton Foundation: 90%
  • US GDP growth lower than in 2016: 80%
  • US official unemployment rate to be higher at end of year than beginning: 80%
  • US does revokes membership to NAFTA : 60%
  • US publicly disavows the One China policy with Taiwan: 25%
  • US lifts existing sanctions on Russia: 90%
  • Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent: 80%

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