2012 Presidential Election Electoral College Map Projection: November 06th – 1:50 AM EST

On the eve of the general election,  Mitt Romney is projected to win 295 electoral votes while Barack Obama would win in states worth 243 electoral votes, according the forecasting model using political contest horary in conjunction with polling trends of the 11 key swing states over the past 13 days.  The 11 key swing states are those won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Below is the contest horary data of the 11 key swing states, using Intrade predictions  and  the latest non-partisan polling data to project the winner:

Colorado: Romney 50% vs. Obama 48 – November 1st, 2012 2:59 PM EDT, Asbury Park, N.J. – Rasmussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Romney at 52% – Obama 48% chance.
Predicted Winner: 50-48 Romney — a surprise for many

Florida: Romney 50% vs. Obama 48% -October 26th, 2012 8:37 AM EDT, Asbury Park, N.J. – Rasmussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Romney at 52% – Obama 48% chance.
Predicted Winner: 51-48 Romney –closer then expected.

Iowa:  Obama 49% vs. Romney 49%  – November 5th, 2012 2:28 PM EST, Asbury Park, N.J.  – Ramussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 69% – Obama 42% chance
Predicted Winner: 50-48 Romney — many don’t expect this

Michigan: Obama 51% vs. Romney 47%  – November 1st, 2012 9:26 AM EST, Asbury Park, N.J.  – Ramussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 94% – Romney 14% chance
Predicted Winner: 50-48 Obama — closer then expected

Nevada: Obama vs. Romney  – October 24th, 2012 08:22 AM EDT, Asbury Park, N.J. – Rasmussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 80% – Romney 12% chance
Predicted Winner: 51-48 Obama — much closer then expected

New Hampshire: Obama 50% vs. Romney 48% – November 5th, 2012 2:28 PM EST, Asbury Park, N.J.  – Ramussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 67% – Obama 33% chance
Predicted Winner: 50-48 Romney — maybe a true bellwether of the popular vote

North Carolina: Romney 52 vs. Obama 46  – October 27th, 2012 8:59 AM EDT, Asbury Park, N.J. – Rasmussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Romney at 79% – Obama 20% chance
Predicted Winner: 53 – 45 Romney — not as close as expected

Ohio: Obama vs. Romney  – Obama 50% vs. Romney 48% – November 5th, 2012 10:49 AM EST, Asbury Park, N.J.  – Ramussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 65% – Romney 31% chance
Predicted Winner: 50-49  Romney — the surprise of the night

Pennsylvania: Obama vs. Romney  – Obama 47% vs. Romney 47% – November 3rd, 2012 11:56 PM EDT, Pittsburgh, PA  – Tribune-Review/Susquehanna
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 83% – Romney 15% chance
Predicted Winner: 50-48  Obama — closer then expected

Virginia: Obama 48% vs. Romney 50%  – November 5th, 2012 8:53 AM EST, Asbury Park, N.J.  – Ramussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 60% – Romney 39% chance
Predicted Winner: 51 -48 Romney — very close

Wisconsin: Obama 49% vs. Romney 49%  – November 1st, 2012 11:35 AM EDT, Asbury Park, N.J.  – Ramussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 77% – Romney 22% chance
Predicted Winner: 51-49 Romney — a real squeaker and surprise

Final Swing State Daily Tracking Of The Combined 11 Key States:
Obama 46% vs. Romney 50% – October 29th, 2012 10:15 AM EDT, Asbury Park, N.J.  – Rasmussen Reports
Intrade Odds On Favorite: Obama at 60% – Romney 39% chance
Predicted Winner: 51-48 Romney — by a thin 2% margin

Note: I will conduct my final Election horary forecast based on the final swing state polls and post the projected results Tuesday morning at 10:00 AM EST. 

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