Final Presidential Debate Prediction: Obama vs. Romney

Now comes the third and final debate, Oct. 22, in the battleground state of Florida, just 15 days before Election Day. For the president and Romney, the stakes could not be higher, therefore the question is who will win the final presidential debate?

Obama vs. Romney: Who will win the final presidential debate?
Question asked by astrologer while watching a CNN segment about the 3rd Presidential debate on October 20th 2012 at 07:07 pm EDT, New York, N.Y.

According toe Intrade, the worlds largest prediction market, the President has a  70% probability of winning the 3rd presidential debate with Romney only given a modest 37% chance.  Therefore the President is the Favorite and Romney is the Underdog.


1st House – “the Favorite”: President Obama
7th House – “the Underdog”: Governor Romney
10th House – “the Prize”: The General Election
The Moon – “the Electorate”: The Undecided Voters

In the horoscope figure, Taurus rises. Therefore Venus rules the 1st House of the Obama campaign. Venus is in her joy in the 5th House making an applying trine to the benefic North Node, indicating the focus on international affairs that will work favorably for President. However Venus is in her Fall indicating that the President will have only a modest level of  confidence going into the debate.  Jupiter, the great benefic, occupies the 1st house a fortuitous testimony that gives the President an advantage and raises expectations of Obama’s debate performance.  However Jupiter is in his detriment in Gemini, retrograde in motion, and being squared by Venus – Obama’s ruler. Problematic testimonies that indicate that President will possess only a modest level of success in defending his initial response to the Benghazi consulate attack, and be unconvincing in his attempt to articulate his foreign policy strategy going forward.

Since Scorpio is on the 7th House cusp, Mars is the significator for the Romney campaign. Mars is in strongly placed in the 7th House, peregrine, and in opposition to Jupiter, indicating that Romney will be challenged to articulate specific policies that distinguish him as a  international leader that understand the challenges of a 21st century world, in a way that does not offend his Republican base. Also Romney will have to defend  attacks from that President as a foreign-policy flip-flopper  who is unprepared to handle the issues on the world stage. However Mercury (universal ruler of debates and verbal exchanges) is conjunct the 7th House Cusp, sextile Venus and applies by conjunction to the North Node, a favorable set of  testimonies for the Romney, signifying his ability to put aside those attacks and  move on to other issues where he has more of an advantage.

The Moon – which rules the undecided voters and “soft” leaning voters watching the debate, is in the sign of her detriment. Signifying a skeptical and distressed electorate. The Moon makes a her first aspect to Venus – Obama’s ruler, indicating that the President will  likely preform well in the first half of the debate as he accentuates the positive and portrays himself as  strong commander in-chief. However the Moon’s next aspect is a sextile to Mercury. A testimony that strengthens Romney’s performance in the second half of the debate as he effectively redirects how some foreign policy issues have a direct impact on domestic issues such as economic growth and jobs at home.

Although there are a number of supportive horary testimonies that augur victory for  Obama, the Moon’s last  aspect is a square to the Sun, (the universal ruler of the head of state), a problematic testimony for the President that indicates that he is losing his credibility gap among voters about bread and butter issues such as jobs and the economy (Moon in Capricorn). Finally, the South Node resides in Obama’s 1st House, a impediment in any horary chart indicative of a negative outcome due to some form of self-undoing. Thus the President is prone to making egregious error during the debate while trying to stay on the offensive with Romney.

Since neither Romney’s significator, nor the Moon make an aspect to the ruler of the 10th  House  – Saturn, it is unlikely that the  former Governor will be able to use the 3rd Presidential Debate as a means to close the deal with any undecided voters who haven’t yet made up their minds. However, although the mainstream media may initially declare Obama as the winner (Moon trine Venus) it is clear that Obama will not be able to use the debate as means to gain a clear advantage over his GOP opponent and thwart his growing momentum.

Winner: Mitt Romney

Results:

CNN Poll on Who Won the Debate 10/22/12 :Who won the debate among registered voters?

  • Obama 48%, Romney 40%.
  • 59% say Obama did better than expected. 15% say worse.
  • 44% say Romney did better than expected. 26% say worse.

CNN poll of debate watchers:
Who did debate make you more likely to vote for?

  • Romney 25%
  • Obama 24%,
  • Neither 50%

Rasmussen Reports National Survey October 25, 2012 9:40 am EDT – Who Won The Presidential  Debates?

  • 49% Say Romeny Won the Presidentail Debates, 41% Say Obama

Most voters consider the three presidential debates at least somewhat important to how they will vote, and a plurality thinks Mitt Romney is the overall debate winner. Just eight percent (8%) of Likely U.S. Voters did not watch any of the debates. Sixty-three percent (63%) watched a portion or all of all three debates. Fourteen percent (14%) watched some or all of one of the debates, 15% some or all of two of the prime-time televised encounters. Among voters who watched the debates, 49% say Romney was the winner. Forty-one percent (41%) think President Obama came out on top. Four years ago, 47% of voters said Obama was the overall winner of the three debates, while 33% thought Republican nominee John McCain had been victorious. Republicans this year are a bit more confident in their nominee’s performance than Democrats are: 84% of GOP voters who watched the debates think Romney was the overall winner, compared to 78% of Democrats who feel Obama was the champ.  Among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties, the GOP challenger was seen as the winner by a 50% to 31% margin. While both sides complained about this year’s debate moderators, 51% of voters who watched the debates think the moderators played a neutral role. Forty-two percent (42%) believe they tried to help the president versus just four percent (4%) who feel they tried to help Romney. Among all voters, 66% rate the debates as at least somewhat important in terms of how they will vote, but that includes only 24% who consider them Very Important. Thirty-two percent (32%) view the debates as unimportant, but just eight percent (8%) regard them as Not At All Important. Not surprisingly, those who watched the debates are more likely to consider them important to their vote than those who did not watch.

 

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