Paul vs. Romney: Republican Iowa Caucus
Based on the latest Rasmussen poll Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Texas Congressman Ron Paul are leading the pack in Iowawith just two weeks to go until the Iowa Caucus. But large numbers of voters (nearly 50%), remain uncommitted and much could change between now and January 3rd.
According to Intrade, a “futures market” that harnesses competitive passions in a way that becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events, suggests that Ron Paul is currently favored to win the Iowa Caucus. Current prices imply that Paul has an 41% chance of winning while Mitt Romney has a 37% chance. Therefore the Paul campaign is assigned the 1st house as the favorite and the Romney campaign is assigned the 7th house as the underdog. The 10th house rules the prize: the Iowa Caucus “pledged” delegates, and the Moon rules the Iowa Caucus voters.
In this figure Aries is rising, therefore Mars rules the Paul campaign. Mars is peregrine in the sign of Virgo, and weakly placed in the 6th house indicating that Paul’s campaign has been lost some of its momentum. However Mars conjuncts the benefic fixed star Betelgeuse, which is one of the most the most fortunate stars, indicating that Paul’s highly-underrated and under-reported campaign by the mainstream media is a well managed operation that has an excellent ground organization and strong political backing. Therefore the success of his Iowa campaigned will not be blocked by the GOP elite or the major media.
Libra rules the Descendent, therefore Venus rules Romney campaign. Venus is of moderate strength in the 11th house in the early degree’s in the sign of Aquarius and somewhat dignified by Face. This indicates that the Romney campaign has begun to make strides in “The Hawkeye State” among conservative base, in spite of Paul’s devoted boots-on-the-ground campaign advantage. Venus also make a reception to Saturn ruler of the 10th House, which gives the GOP frontrunner the edge with the mainstream media and among the GOP elite.
The Moon, which rules electorate, is in the sign of Sagittarius and placed in the malefic 8th house. Indicators of a highly motivated but extremely anxious and irate electorate. The Moon’s next aspect is a conjunction to Mercury, the universal ruler of the media, which signifies that the roller-coast poll results over the past several weeks will soon accurately reflect the dynamics of the race as the majority of Iowa’s undecided caucus participants begin to make up their minds.
Saturn rules the 10th house of the Iowa delegates. Venus, Romney’s significator makes a reception to Saturn by Sign and Face, an indicator that his support among the GOP base and among older voters will continue to strengthen. However, the great benefic Jupiter occupies the 1st House of the Paul campaign, and is going stationary-direct, which portends success for this GOP Dark Horse. According to the latest polls as of this morning, Paul continues to make gains among social conservatives (that Moon receives Jupiter by sign-exultation) and maintain the raw grassroots buzz he generated in 2008.
Conclusion: Romney will continue to project a front-runner’s confidence, with the support of the GOP elite and the pundits from the mainstream media, as his poll numbers continue to close-in on Paul, while doing his best to charm the state’s mercurial voters. However, based on the portents of the horary chart Ron Paul will go on to win the Iowa Caucus in a surprise upset by a razor thin margin, that will change the dynamics in the GOP race and threaten Romney’s longtime edge in New Hampshire. Outcome: Congressman Ron Paul wins the Republican Iowa Caucus.