Will the U.S. recession end by the end of the third quarter of 2009 as predicted by most economists?
According to the Associated Press more than 90 percent of economists predict the U.S. recession will end this year. About 74 percent of economic forecasters expect the recession — which started in December 2007 and is the longest since World War II, to end in the third quarter of 2009. Another 19 percent predict the turning point will come in the final three months of this year, and the remaining 7 percent believe the recession will end in the first quarter of 2010. Even Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and NABE forecasters say the recession will end later this year, barring any new shocks to the economy.
However many consumers and investors are skeptical of such optimistic forecast. A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of 1,500 adults for May 27th state that 79% believe that the U.S. economy in a recession with only 8% stating no, and 14% unsure. Another survey showed that 57% of consumers rated the U.S. economy as poor with fewer than 10% saying it is good, or excellent. Finally the latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds that 58% say the nation is moving down the wrong track.
So the question is “Will the U.S. recession end by the end of the third quarter of 2009 as predicted by most economists”?
Date and Time: May 27th 2009, at 1:59 pm EDT, New York, NY.
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In this figure Virgo rises therefore Mercury rules of the Ascendant. In mundane astrology Mercury rules of the news media, opinion polls, and think tanks (an institute or group that conducts research and advocates policy to a nation’s leadership). Mercury’s placement in the 9th house symbolizes the trends forecast for the economy as reported by the media. Mercury is peregrine (without dignity), retrograde, and cadent, testimonies that indicate the forecast model on which the economist made their prediction is faulty and unable to measure the unforeseen and robust shifts in the global economy.
The Moon co-significator of the question, and the measure economic confidence consumers have on a daily basis, makes a separating square from Venus ruler of the 2nd house of the nation’s economic activity, and the banking system. Venus is in detriment, placed in the malefic 8th house of debt and crisis, and is applying to malefic Mars. The Moon is making a separating square from a debilitated Venus which signifies the ending of the fiscal 1st quarter and thus shows the brute force of the recession affecting the American consumer as the economy sank at a steep 5.7 percent pace since January, marking the second straight quarter when the economy began to plummet last fall and thrusting the nation into a financial crisis.
Venus’ debilitation and untenable position in the 8th house signifies a nation in massive debt and whose foreign and domestic credit is tapped out as trillions of dollars-worth of toxic assets were dumped onto taxpayers in attempt to bail out the banking sector. With Venus applying to Mars, the risk of inflation will increase as the government continues to print more money in order to provide fiscal stimulus into the economy. This will be followed by higher interest rates as the U.S. dollar begins to tailspin downward.
The Moon’s next application is a sextile to Mercury, an indication of a short-term false flag recovery. Therefore we can expect the stock market to make a strong rally during the 2nd fiscal quarter improving consumer confidence, at least for the short term, in the belief that the economy will be stronger one year from now.
However, the Moon’s next aspect is an applying square to Mars, ruler of the 8th house – a testimony that that another financial crisis may be inevitable. Therefore, we can expect consumer confidence to fall to record lows as economic uncertainty increases as tens of millions of households fall behind on their mortgages or stop paying altogether due to unemployment, job insecurity, credit debt, and rising gas prices.
Conclusion: Based on the testimonies stated above a soft landing recovery is highly unlikely. In fact, the testimonies in the horary augur that 4th quarter economic growth will be negative with the risk of the economy is moving toward a double dip W-shaped recession by next year. Therefore, we can expect a decline in economic growth by the 1st quarter of 2010, paving the way for the development for what NYU professor of economics Nouriel Roubini says could be the “perfect storm.”
Trend: The American consumer will no longer be able to be idle bystanders expecting government to come to the rescue as the severity of economic hardship increases due to rising public debt, double digit unemployment, rampant inflation, and scarcity of energy resources.