Predictions for the 2008 Democratic Primaries
PREDICTIONS FOR THE
2008 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
Senator Obama vs. Senator Clinton
|FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver||William Stickevers, Political Contest Horary||FINAL RESULT|
2008 Democratic Nomination
Ohio Democratic Primary
Pennsylvania Democratic Primary
Texas Democratic Primary
Wisconsin Democratic Primary
2008 Iowa Caucus
May 9, 2008
Obama vs. Clinton : Who will win the 2008 Democratic Nomination?
Since 2004 Clinton was heavily favored by most pundits, trends analyst, and psychics for that matter, to win the Democratic nomination in 2008. But given the consistently impressive performance of Obama in wining in states as diverse as Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska, Colorado, Wisconsin, Missouri, Virginia, Connecticut, and Maine, his superior campaign organizational and fund-raising skills, his inspiration of young people, and the often flat and uninspiring performance by Hillary Clinton throughout most of the campaign, dramatically changed the dynamics of the race.
As of today, RCP has Obama ahead in total elected delegates with 1,852 while Hillary has only 1,695. Obama leads over Clinton +157 delegates, and also leads in the popular total vote by 709,786 or +2.3%.
After failing to make decisive victories in both North Carolina and Indiana that could have reignited her campaign and reshaped the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton’s advisors have now ceded that it will be highly improbable that she could catch Barack Obama either in delegates or the popular vote to win the nomination. Clinton would need to win 68 percent of the remaining delegates to win — an extremely unlikely scenario, made harder by her poor performance on Tuesday.
The protracted race and lack of any apparent end point has unaligned Democrats concerned. “The primary race is no longer about Democratic ideas or policy initiatives — it’s about process, and that is the last thing you want your candidate talking about,” said another Democratic strategist and veteran of Sen. John F. Kerry’s campaign. “This is increasingly in the hands of the superdelegates, whose minds can change on a daily basis. What started out as a better path to a faster nomination has resulted in a party without a nominee and a ticking clock.”
There are more undeclared superdelegates remaining 266, than pledged delegates left 216, in the race. The nomination process has moved from the campaign trail to the “cigar smoking” back rooms.
So the contest horary question is, “Obama vs. Clinton : Who will win the 2008 Democratic Nomination?” Date and place of when the horary question was asked by the astrologer: May 7th, 2008 at 05:53 am EDT, New York , NY.
The Rasmussen Markets, a “futures market” that harnesses competitive passions in a way that becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events, suggests that Barack Obama is now highly favored to win the Democratic Nomination. Current prices imply that Obama has a 94% chance of winning while Clinton has a 6% chance. Therefore, Obama is assigned the 1st house as the favorite and Clinton is assigned the 7th house as the underdog. The Moon rules the pledged delegates and superdelegates, and the 10th house rules the prize: the Democratic Nomination for President of the United States.
In this figure Taurus is rising, therefore Venus rules the Obama. Venus is dignified by sign and rising. Venus is moving fast and applying to the Sun (universal ruler of kings and king makers – the Democratic National Committee in this instance), favorable testimonies that show Obama’s strong voter appeal and electability. The Sun also receives Venus indicating that the executive leadership of the DNC is willing to settle the race and secure the nomination for Obama ahead of the convention.
Mercury, universal ruler of communications and the press, is dignified by sign and placed in the 1st house of the Obama campaign, an indication that the media has recognized Obama’s candidacy as the inevitable nominee.
The Moon which rules the remaining undecided superdelegates that are composed of party leaders and office holders not selected through the primaries and caucuses, is also placed in the 1st house. A testimony that indicates the Obama campaign will be able to successfully sway the remaining 266 undecided superdelegates to endorse his candidacy for the nomination.
Mercury and the Moon both apply to the Part of Fortune by conjunction and the Part of Fortune receives Mercury. Very favorable testimonies that indicate that Obama’s favorability with the media will increase and will continue to accrue a significant “war chest” through his continued fund raising efforts for the upcoming national election in November.
Mars rules Clinton. Mars is peregrine, essentially debilitated, conjunct the I.C. (the lowest point in the horoscope), and in the last 3 degrees indicating that Clinton is politically wounded and her campaign momentum is on the decline. She no longer has a credible election strategy or the monetary resources necessary to mount a competitive campaign against Obama.
Conclusion: Twenty-seven (27) degrees is on the Midheaven indicating that for all intensive purposes the fight for the Democratic nomination is over. Based on the multiple testimonies stated above, Obama has essentially clinched the nomination and we will likely see a significant number of big name superdelegates move to Obama’s side. However, the Moon’s next aspect is a square to Uranus and Mars is in reception with the Moon by sign and term, indicating that the Clinton campaign will continue their efforts to convince a large portion of uncommitted superdelegates to go against the will of the voters (risking a power struggle within the party establishment), but will be ultimately unsuccessful in assembling 2025 delegates necessary to win the nomination.
Outcome: Barack Obama will win the Democratic Nomination for President of the United States
May 09th, 2008
2:15 pm EDT
New York, NY
May 1, 2008
Who will win the Ohio Democratic Primary?
Clinton is favored to win March 4 in Ohio, where lower-income and labor union voters comprise a substantial part of the electorate. But recent polls show Clinton and Obama in a virtual tie in Ohio, also considered a must-win state for her on March 4. According to the Rasmussen Reports the Democratic primary in Ohio may be the most competitive political contest since Super Tuesday.
Overnight results from Rasmussen Markets report that the Tuesday night debate between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in Cleveland Ohio did not change the trends of the campaign. Current market data suggests that Clinton has a 50.2% chance of winning the Ohio Presidential Primary. That’s down eight points from 58% last week. Roughly half the decline took place before the debate and half following the debate.
The latest Rasmussen poll shows Clinton with a narrow two-point advantage over Obama, 47% to 45%. Nine percent (9%) are unsure. Clinton has maintained a constant level of support over the past week, but Barack Obama is rapidly gaining ground in her rear view mirror.
So the contest horary question is who will win the Ohio Democratic Primary?
Horary Data: March 01st 2008 10:37 am EST, New York , NY .
The Rasmussen Markets data suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win in Ohio . Current prices imply that Clinton has a 53.0%chance of winning while Clinton has a 49.0% chance. Therefore, Clinton rules the 1st house as the favorite and Obama rules the 7th house as the challenger. The 10th house is the prize: the Ohio “pledged” delegates. And the Moon rules the electorate.
In this figure Gemini is rising, therefore Mercury rules the Clinton campaign. Mercury is slightly dignified by face and weakly placed in the 9th house indicating that her campaign is losing momentum. Her wide double digit leads in the Buckeye state polls have disappeared and her campaign lacks the power to change the dynamics of the race. Mars is in the 1st house dignified by term is at the fated 29th degree of Gemini. The Moon’s (significator of the electorate) next and final aspect is in opposition to Mars, a testimony indicating that her campaign will go for the jugular while it is looking more and more like her last stand against Barack Obama.
Jupiter rules the Obama campaign. Jupiter is in its fall but somewhat dignified by term at moderate strength being placed in the 8th house. Although Obama has won 11 primaries in a row since Super Tuesday, the Obama campaign is having difficulty in catching Clinton in the race there. This is because Clinton is slightly more favored by Ohio voters, especially among those in key demographic groups that have supported her all year.
However the Sun (universal ruler of Presidents) is applying to Jupiter by sextile while Jupiter is applying to Uranus, testimonies that show that Obama will continue to make meaning progress among independent and progressive voters as his campaign momentum builds. Also, the Moon is in the 7th house and receives Jupiter, indicating that Obama has the edge in organizational strength and will benefit the most from a high voter turnout.
Conclusion: Obama will continue his march in Ohio and catch up to Clinton in the race shortly before Election Day. Clinton ’s significator Mercury will shortly conjunct benefic Venus indicting her support among women will continue to hold strong. Thus, this political contest is close to call to predict a definitive winner at this time. However, based on the testimonies above Clinton will likely fail to make any meaningful comeback in Ohio toward the presidential nomination on primary day.
April 21, 2008
Who will win the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary?
The Pennsylvania Democratic Primary is on April 22nd. The latest Rasmussen telephone survey poll of the state shows an extremely tight race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. With one day to go, Clinton leads Obama by just 5 percentage point 49 percent to 44 percent, with 7 percent of Pennsylvania voters that still remain undecided and 3 percent say there’s a good chance they will change their mind. Support for Clinton has slipped from 52 percent early in March, to 51 percent in mid-month, 49 percent three weeks ago, 47 percent two weeks ago, and 46 percent last week. During that same time frame, support for Obama has increased from 37 percent to 44 percent.
Hillary Clinton’s double digit lead has vanished, but she still has a solid single-digit lead. Clinton has been spinning this as “the person who gets the most votes wins” because she needs to win so overwhelmingly that the superdelegates will move her way in huge numbers. Despite the intense campaigning of the past two weeks, this has been a race where demography is destiny and the demographic make-up of the state seems to favor Clinton. Clinton’s strength comes from women, older blue-collar workers (many of whom have been laid off), and retirees. This group of voters has enabled her to retain a modest lead despite being significantly outspent by the Obama campaign. These people have consistently supported Clinton and are likely to do so tomorrow. Obama’s increase in support since last week comes from small gains across the board.
Obama has cut Clinton’s margin with white voters, expanded his advantage with black voters, reduced Clinton’s lead with women, and increased his percentage of the male vote. Obama’s main hope is getting a huge turnout in Philadelphia, especially among younger voters.
So the contest horary question is, “Who will win the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary?” Date and place of when the horary question was asked by the astrologer: April 21st 2008 at 10:00 pm EDT, New York, NY.
The Rasmussen Markets data suggests that Hilly Clinton is highly favored to win in Pennsylvania. Current prices imply that Clinton has an 88 percent chance of winning while Obama has a 10 percent chance. Therefore the Clinton campaign is assigned the 1st house as the favorite and Obama campaign is assigned the 7th house as the challenger. The 10th house rules the prize: the Pennsylvania “pledged” delegates, and the Moon rules the electorate.
In this figure Leo is rising; therefore, the Sun rules the Clinton campaign. The Sun is peregrine in the sign of Taurus and weakly placed in the 9th house indicating that her campaign has been losing momentum and her campaign lacks the power to change the dynamics of the race. However, the Sun is placed in his Joy in the 9th house, so all is not lost for Clinton and she will likely maintain her edge in the polls. The malefic South Node is in the 1st house indicating that Clinton’s campaign is a debt-saddled, internally mismanaged, and top heavy, lacking the necessary organization and resources to win a double digit victory on Tuesday.
Saturn rules the Obama campaign. Saturn is peregrine and retrograde and placed in the 1st house of Clinton campaign indicating that Obama has lost the necessary momentum to overcome the demographic advantage that favors Clinton. However, the North Node resides in the 7th house of the Obama campaign indicating that Obama has the edge in organizational strength and will benefit the most from a high voter turnout. Neptune is also in the 7th house applying to the North Node as well indicating that Obama will continue to make meaning progress among young, independent, and progressive voters.
The Moon, which rules electorate, is strongly placed in the 4th house indicating a high turnout but in its fall in the sign of Scorpio showing that Pennsylvania voters are very angry and frustrated with government and suffering from economic hardship. The Moon’s next aspect is a trine to Mars. Mars is the universal ruler of men and skilled labor. This indicates that reaming 7 percent of undecided working class and blue collar voters will break for Obama.
Conclusion: Clinton’s significator the Sun is in reception with Venus indicting her support among women will continue to hold strong and maintain her base, despite the fact that Obama is outspending Clinton by 3 to 1 and has a larger volunteer organization. The horary indicates that Clinton will win the primary but not by a large enough margin to erase the growing sense that Obama will go on to win the nomination.
Outcome: Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Primary by a small margin.
April 29, 2008
4:15 pm EDT
New York, NY
February 25, 2008
Who will win the Texas Democratic Primary?
Texas is the biggest prize remaining on the Democrats’ schedule. It’s a virtual must-win for Hillary Clinton, who has dropped 10 contests in a row to Barack Obama. The good news for Clinton is that she is still ahead in Texas ; however the bad news is that she is clinging to a one-point lead after she was leading Obama by double digits last week. The latest Rasmussen poll for Texas has Clinton at 46% to Obama 45% with 9% unsure.
So the contest horary question is “Who will win the Texas Democratic Primary?”
Horary Data: February 25th 2008 7:33 pm EST, New York , NY.
The Rasmussen Markets data suggests that Barack Obama is currently favored to win in Texas . Current prices imply that Obama has a 68.7%chance of winning while Clinton has a 33.7% chance. Therefore, Obama rules the 1st house as the favorite and Clinton rules the 7th house as the challenger. The 10th house is the prize: Texas Democratic primary and its delegates. The Moon rules the electorate.
In this figure Libra rises, therefore Venus rules the Obama Campaign. Venus is peregrine – without dignity, strongly placed in 4th house and conjunct Mercury. The Moon (which rules the voters) is in the 1st house and applies to Venus and Mercury by square indicating that Obama will win a majority of the student and Hispanic vote, and pull even with Clinton among women voters.
Mars rules the Clinton campaign. Mars is dignified by triplicity an indication that the Clinton campaign is still competitive despite its recent defeats and numerous setbacks since Super Tuesday. However, Mars in weakly placed in the 9th (a cadent) house and the final degrees of Gemini. Mars will shortly ingress into Cancer, the sign of its fall and oppose the planetoid Pluto, indicating that her campaign is exhausted and facing the prospects of final and utter defeat.
Cancer is on the Midheaven. Since the Moon rules to electorate we must use the next sign that also occupies in the 10th house to determine who will win the delegate count. Leo is intercepted in the 10th and ruled by the Sun. The Sun is peregrine but in its joy being placed in the 5th house. The Moon’s next applying aspect is to the Sun testimony that favors Obama. Also point worth considering is the Part of Sudden Advancement which is also placed at 10 Leo in the 10th house and applying by opposition to Venus, another favorable testimony for Obama.
Conclusion: Although the race for the nomination is in play, Texas may be the final straw the ends Hillary Clinton’s quest for the Presidency. Based on the testimonies stated above, it is likely Obama win by a significant enough margin in the Texas primary to remain the definitive front-runner for the nomination.
Winner: Barack Obama
February 23, 2008
Will Hillary Clinton win in both Texas and Ohio by comfortable margins in order to stay in the race?
Ohio and Texas are virtual must-win states for Senator Hillary Clinton, who has dropped 11 primary contests in a row to Senator Barack Obama. The good news for Clinton is that she is still ahead in Texas and Ohio; however, the bad news is that her lead is down is within one to eight points after she was leading Obama last week by double digits. The latest Rasmussen poll for Texas: Clinton 46 percent, Obama 45 percent, and 9 percent unsure. As for Ohio: Clinton 48 percent, Obama 43 percent, and 9 percent unsure.
The New York Times reported that the Clinton campaign team and advisors believe that without significant wins in Texas and Ohio, Hillary Clinton will have to pull out of the Democratic primary race.
So the horary question is “Will Hillary Clinton win in both Texas and Ohio by comfortable margins in order to stay in the race?” Horary Data: February 23rd 2008 8:17 pm EST, New York, NY .
I am a New York City resident and Clinton is the junior Senator of New York State; therefore, Hillary rules the 10th house. The 4th house rules the campaign (7th house from the 10th house), the 7th house (10th house from the 10th) rules the prize: both the pledged and super delegates from the nominating contest. The Moon rules the electorate.
In this figure Cancer is on the Midheaven. Since the Moon rules the electorate in political contest charts we must use the next sign occupying the 10th house to determine the significator. Since Leo also occupies the 1st house, the Sun rules Clinton.
The Sun is peregrine – without dignity, neutrally placed in the 5th house, and in its joy. These testimonies indicate that the former frontrunner, although dramatically weakened by 11 primaries defeats since Super Tuesday and campaign setbacks, soldiers on believing she is capable reversing the tide of her fledgling campaign.
Saturn rules the 4h house of Clinton campaign (remember this is not a contest horary). Saturn is in Virgo, peregrine, retrograde and neutral in the 11th house. Saturn’s weak position indicates that the Clinton campaign team is in a state of crisis and on the defensive as her opponent continues to make decisive gains. Jupiter the greater benefic occupies the 4th house giving Clinton an edge in the polls among organized labor and blue collar and working class voters. However, Jupiter is in its fall and receives a debilitated Saturn, indicating that her ground organization is over extended and struggling to maintain its base.
Mars rules the 7th house of the prize: the awarded “pledged delegates” and “super delegates”. Mars is dignified by triplicity. Clinton has more super delegate support than her rival indicating that is still the candidate of choice among the Democratic establishment that make up a majority of the super delegates. However, Mars in weakly placed in the 9th (a cadent) house – falling, and in the final degrees of Gemini. Mars will shortly ingress into Cancer (the sign of its fall), and oppose the malefic planetoid Pluto. These testimonies indicate Clinton will begin to lose support from the party establishment as many super delegates breakaway their support.
The Moon’s next aspect is a square to Jupiter, a testimony that voter sentiment will change against her. Clinton’s significator, the Sun, is applying in close opposition to Saturn, a testimony that augurs defeat and indicates her already exhausted campaign is on its last rope. Also, the Part of Resignation (Saturn + Jupiter – Sun) falls at 14 Cancer, just inside the 10th house opposing Jupiter, showing that resignation for the Clinton campaign is in the realm of possibility in the near future.
Conclusion: After the good old fashioned beating in the Wisconsin Primary at the hands of Barack Obama the once-mighty Clinton campaign is in shambles. Clinton is unlikely to win both Ohio and Texas by large enough margins to stop Obama’s surge and establish her own powerful momentum.
Prediction: Many in the Democratic establishment will call for Clinton to drop out of the race shortly after the Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont nominating contests on March 4.
February 14, 2008
Who will win the Wisconsin Democratic Primary?
According to the Rasmussen Reports the Democratic Presidential Primary in Wisconsin may be the most competitive contest between Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton since Super Tuesday. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Obama with a narrow four-point advantage over Clinton, 47 percent to 43 percent. However, nearly one-fourth of the voters say there is a good chance they might change their mind. Five percent of those who currently support Obama and Clinton say there is a good chance they could change their mind before voting.
So the contest horary question is “Who will win the Wisconsin Democratic Primary?”
Horary Data: February 14th 2008 2:15 pm EST, New York, NY
The Rasmussen Markets data suggests that Barack Obama is currently favored to win in Wisconsin. Current prices imply that Obama has a 70.0 percent chance of winning while Clinton has a 31.5 percent chance. Therefore, Obama rules the 1st house as the favorite and Clinton rules the 7th house as the challenger. The 10th house is the prize: Wisconsin Democratic primary and its delegates. The Moon rules the electorate.
In this figure Cancer rises. Since the Moon rules the electorate in political contest charts we must use the next sign occupying the 1st house to determine the significator. Since Leo also occupies the 1st house the Sun rules the Obama campaign.
The Sun is in Aquarius, the sign of its fall and peregrine – without dignity. An indication that although Obama decisively has won 8 primaries in a row since Super Tuesday, he is still not considered by most high ranking members of his own party to win the nomination. However, the Sun is in the succedent 8th house and applying to Mars by trine (co-ruler of the 10th house) and the benefic North Node by conjunction. Also, the Moon, which rules the primary voters, applies to the Sun by trine. These are all strong testimonies that augur victory for Obama.
Saturn rules the 7th house of the Clinton campaign. Saturn is in Virgo, peregrine, retrograde and weak in the 3rd house. Saturn’s weak position indicates that the Clinton campaign has lost both its momentum and its air of “inevitability”. Benefic Venus occupies the 7th house giving Clinton an edge with female voters on primary day but this testimony by itself is not strong enough to win the day since the Moon’s next aspect is a square to Saturn – her significator; nor does Venus have either rulership of the Midheaven or make aspects to the 10th house significators.
Conclusion: The once-mighty Clinton campaign is in a very bad way. Based on the above testimonies it seems that Clinton’s base is eroding and she will likely lose the Wisconsin primary to Obama by a larger then expected margin. Although it is too early to write off Clinton, there is a sense in this hoary of Saturnian “doom and gloom” surrounding her campaign. The questions becomes if Obama sweeps the remaining primary contest in February what chance does Clinton have of winning the nomination? As with Obama, his testimonies indicate that his momentum does not show any signs of slowing down. It seems the longer he is out there on the campaign trail, the better he is known with voters, the better are his future fortunes.
December 6, 2007
Based on the latest Zogby poll who will win the 2008 Iowa Caucus the front runner Clinton (27%) or Obama (24%)?
Political Contest Horary: Based on the latest Zogby poll who will win the 2008 Iowa caucus the front runner Clinton (27%) or Obama (24%)?
Date and Time of Question: December 6th 2007 12:07am EST New York, NY.
Clinton the front runner for the Democratic Party is the 1st house.
Obama the leading challenger is the 7th house.
The Iowa Caucus itself is the 10th house.
The Moon is the electorate.
The lord of the 1st house Mercury is in its detriment, cadent. Mercury is combust and applying to Saturn by square. Tis is indicates the Clinton campaign is extremely stressed and her lead in Iowa is likely to continue to shrink.
The lord of the 7th house is Jupiter. Jupiter is dignified by sign and angular. an indication that Obama is likely to be the new front runner in the race. Jupiter applies to the North Node by sextile indicating that his campaign will continue to gain ground. Jupiter will conjunct Pluto as well, and indication of a major upset that favors the underdog.
The Moon in Scorpio indicates that voters are in a very nasty frame of mind and angry with the political system in general. The Moon’s first aspect is a sextile to Saturn, a indication that the focus of the voters will move towards taxes, government entitlements such as social security, health care, and the general economy.
The Moon’s last aspect is to Neptune suggest that many voters are likely be uncertain in choosing a candidate and likely to changer their minds last minute to a second choice candidate.
Mercury is also lord of the 10th house that represents the Iowa caucus itself. Mercury is same sign as Jupiter and will eventually conjunct the lord of the 7th house an indication that the challenger will win.
Prediction: Barack Obama will begin the surge past Hillary Clinton in the polls leading up the the January 3rd and win the 2008 Democratic Iowa caucus in a surprise upset.